ARIZONA, USA — The first batch of election results in Arizona showed Tuesday night an sweeping victory for the Democratic candidate.
At about 9:00 p.m., Democratic candidates Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, and Adrian Fontes led the Republican nominee by more than 10 points.
But Arizona people wake up Wednesday morning, Saw a closer election.
This is known as the “Blue Mirage” or “Red Surge” and is the result of changes in voting habits among Arizonas.
What are “Blue Mirage” and “Red Surge”?
“Last night we saw a ‘blue mirage’ but this morning something is different…we are seeing a ‘red wave’,” Team 12 political insider Brahm Reznik said Wednesday.
A “Blue Mirage” or “Red Surge” is characterized by the first few batches of votes leaning toward Democratic candidates, but the rest of the votes leaning toward Republican candidates.
Arizona is unique in its “blue mirage” effect due to changes in the habits of the state’s voters. Democrats moved to early voting, while Republicans moved to in-person voting on Election Day.
“It’s all about voter behavior,” Resnick said. “Republicans show up on Election Day and vote in person. Democrats fill out and mail early ballots when they receive them.”
The change can largely be attributed to Republican-led attacks on the nationwide mail-in voting system that led to the 2020 Arizona Senate Republican recount of the Maricopa County ballot.
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But in previous elections, Arizonans saw a different kind of mirage.
It’s not the first time Arizona has seen a ‘mirage’
In 2018, the state saw a “red mirage” and a “blue wave.”
Republican Senator Martha McSally had a big lead on election night over her opponent, Democrat Kirsten Cinema. However, after the initial vote dropped, subsequent votes continued to tilt in favor of Democrats, ultimately securing Cinema’s victory.
The “red mirage”, leading to allegations of election fraud by then-Arizona President Donald Trump, marks the beginning of what will be a major debate for the Republican Party in 2020 and beyond.
Previous 2018 coverage:
During the 2018 election, Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to vote by mail. Data from TargetSmart Early voting and absentee ballots in 2018 show that they were used by 53% of Republicans compared to 41% of Democrats.
Since 2018, the gap between the two parties in early voting usage has narrowed, with 50% Republicans using the same data and 44% Democrats using the same data.
Trends are one thing, but the end result is another. Stay tuned to 12News for his week as votes continue to be counted on our live election update page here.
decision 2022
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