Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut off federal disaster aid for the California wildfires if he returns to the White House, most recently during remarks at a campaign rally in Coachella and at a golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes. It is stated in

The loss of federal funding would be a devastating blow to the state, where wildfires are becoming larger and more destructive due in part to climate change. A single serious fire can result in tens of billions of dollars in damages, extinguishing costs, and economic losses. The potential loss of disaster aid has state officials and politicians considering contingency plans ahead of next week’s elections.

“This falls under President Trump’s revenge plot,” said Rep. John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove). “He has promised revenge on those who did not support him or who challenged him, and California is one of them.”

President Trump has said he will withhold disaster funding if state officials don’t support his policies, and recently Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he will withhold disaster funds if state officials don’t support his policies, and recently Gov. Gavin Newsom will make more water available to farmers and homeowners. They are threatening to stop it.

“We’ll take care of your water situation, we’ll shove water down his throat, and we’ll say: Gavin, if you don’t do it, we’re going to send fire to all of you. I’m not going to give you a dime.” It’s all fire, forest fire season,” Trump said at Coachella.

The threat appears to be well-founded. Presidents have extraordinary discretion over disaster relief, which Trump reportedly used as a political cudgel during his presidency.

According to reports, he initially refused to approve federal aid for California’s wildfires in 2018, but was told by National Security Council officials that Orange County was heavily populated with supporters. It is said that he was Report from Politico’s E&E News. President Trump also ignored requests for aid for the Washington state fires in 2020 amid a feud with Gov. Jay Inslee, and funding was given the green light only after President Biden took office several months later. The outlet reported.

“We have a proven track record that this type of behavior is more than just a threat,” said Brian Rice, president of the California Professional Fire Brigade. “That appears to be a potential reality. And it’s very worrying.”

The California Fire Protection Association has endorsed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who left the national coalition, which did not endorse either candidate, partly due to threats from President Trump.

California and other states receive the majority of their federal wildfire assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, following the process established in the federal Stafford Act and the regulatory framework implementing the Act. This includes private assistance, such as direct payments and services to homeowners and renters whose property has been damaged, and public assistance to pay for things like search and rescue teams, debris removal, and infrastructure repairs.

To qualify for such assistance, a state must demonstrate that the severity and scale of the incident exceeds the state’s ability to respond. The governor must request a major disaster, and the president must declare and approve any aid requested by the governor.

This is done through a step-by-step process in which local, state, and federal governments assess the damage and ensure certain fiscal standards are met. Based on that information, FEMA determines whether a federal disaster declaration is warranted and issues a recommendation to the president. Presidents have followed that recommendation in the past, but there is nothing in the law requiring them to do so.

Similarly, the president is not legally forced to consider certain factors when making decisions about disaster assistance, nor is he required to make them in a timely manner.

Matt Sedler, a climate analyst at the Center for Economic Policy Research who studies how disaster relief funds are allocated, said countries can appeal aid denials, but they don’t ultimately decide the outcome of the appeal. said he is the president.

“My main message is that if President Trump acts on his threats, bad things could happen to California.”

Denying FEMA recommended disaster aid would cause political outrage and likely lead to lawsuits calling the decision arbitrary and capricious, said members of the Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Subcommittee. Garamendi said. Supervision of FEMA. However, it is unclear what decision the court will make.

“It would be very egregious for Congress and senators to put so much pressure on the president, especially given what President Trump has said is his agenda,” Garamendi said. “I guarantee you it will happen. There will be political backlash and lawsuits.”

All states are exposed to perils that qualify them for federal assistance, from storms and floods to fires and even terrorist attacks. Officials fear that Mr. Trump will base decisions on whether to approve aid based on a state’s political leanings. For example, he would deny aid to California and Washington, but approve funding to states where re-election campaigns have strong support.

After Hurricane Michael hit Florida in 2018, President Trump directed FEMA to cover most of the state’s disaster costs at 100% instead of the usual 75%, resulting in more than the state would receive without intervention. $350 million more in federal aid. Politico reported.

According to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ autobiography, when he asked President Trump for help, the then-president responded: Big crowd. What do they need? ”

California has been denied federal wildfire funding in the past. In 2021, state officials spoke out when Biden refused to provide individual aid to victims of the Kaldor Fire, which destroyed more than 1,000 structures in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The president did declare a disaster and authorized public assistance. But Biden’s decision was based on a recommendation from FEMA, not in spite of it: FEMA considers the scale of destruction, residents’ insurance coverage, and the extent of residents’ insurance coverage before determining that a fire does not require individual assistance. It said it considered range, income levels and the state’s financial resources.

There is at least one notable exception. That is, the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which provides federal funding for up to 75% of eligible firefighting costs for large wildfires, does not require presidential approval. These must be approved only by the local FEMA administrator. The agency has approved nine of the grants to California so far this year.

Still, FEMA’s director and regional administrators are appointed by the president, so it’s possible that President Trump will create an official to carry out his wishes.

“There are many mechanisms by which the federal government can harm states,” Sedler said.

Experts believe that if the president refuses to provide federal aid, state officials will look for alternatives. Garamendi said some aid may still be available through other federal agencies, such as the Department of Transportation, and could help rebuild highways, install road barriers and clean culverts.

But they say the ultimate burden of making up the difference will fall on the state of California, raising the possibility that other programs and funds used to raise that money will be cut.

Newsome recently told Politico He will work with other officials to create a state budget plan that will allow California to pay for disaster response costs in the event that FEMA aid is no longer available under a future President Trump administration. He said he is doing so.

“Even in a state as big as California, even with a large budget, we’re going to face serious funding issues,” the governor told the outlet.

California is virtually guaranteed to need federal disaster aid for the next four years. Requests for assistance from the federal government are commonplace to combat not only worsening wildfires but also severe storms that are becoming more common as the West experiences an extreme change from wet to dry season.

Earlier this year, Newsom requested presidential disaster declarations for damages to homeowners and renters from the Park Fire in Northern California and the Borrell Fire in Kern County, both of which FEMA said were under review. said.

Biden also granted two major disaster declarations for severe storms in California. The first was given the green light on February 19 for storm and flooding in San Diego County, bringing in more than $27 million in FEMA assistance to homeowners and renters.

The second was declared April 13 for severe winter storms, tornadoes, flooding, and landslides in Glenn, Butte, Sutter, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. and caused more than $5.1 million in damages to FEMA. The agency said assistance is being provided to communities affected by damage to public infrastructure.

Depending on the year, the amount may be even higher. After the devastating 2020 fire season, which burned more acres in California than any year on record, FEMA approved more than $700 million in private and public assistance.

Denying such aid because of political grudges would undermine the centuries-old, venerable mutual aid system that underpins this country’s disaster response, Rice said. .

“It’s all about local, state and federal support. That’s how America works,” he said. “We don’t threaten each other. We don’t play games with people’s lives.”

When the system becomes politicized, it’s the community members who ultimately get hurt, he added.

“The California Legislature has nothing to lose, and neither does the City Council or the Board of Supervisors,” he said. “It’s the people living in California who are under threat, and they are the ones who are suffering.”