CNN data analyst Harry Enten argued Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris' “clear momentum” in the presidential race due to the Democratic Party's “rallying together the base” is “dragging” former President Donald Trump.
Harris is Approval President Joe Biden gave up his reelection bid on July 21 and won the Democratic nomination shortly thereafter. Enten said support from Democrats and “non-traditional voters” is helping the vice president rise in the polls. Public Opinion Poll The New York Times published the results of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Saturday. (Related story: 'We don't know that': MSNBC data expert gives Democrats harsh reality after Walz election)
“What are you looking at? This is a New York Times/Siena College poll that came out over the weekend, and it shows the Democrats and Trump are closing the gap. Here's a May poll, Biden versus Trump. You see a lot of red on this side of the screen. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, of course the so-called blue wall. This is May. Trump has a three-point lead, Trump has a one-point lead in Wisconsin, Biden has a one-point lead in Michigan,” Enten told CNN News Central host Kate Baldwin. “The trend lines here are very important. Now let's jump from May to August. Let's go from the red on this side of the screen to the blue on this side of the screen. Harris has a four-point lead in Pennsylvania, Harris has a four-point lead in Wisconsin, Harris has a four-point lead in Michigan. You're seeing some pretty extreme comments about Trump on social media and wondering why. It's because Joe Biden has dropped out of the race and we're looking at polling data that shows a clear momentum from Donald Trump to Kamala Harris.”
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In national head-to-head races, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 0.5 percentage points. According to According to the average of RealClear polls from July 22 to August 7, the vice president increase Her lead narrows to 0.8 percentage points when the survey includes Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and independent presidential candidates Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. By comparison, Trump held a 3.1 percentage point lead over Biden in head-to-head national races before President Trump gave up his reelection bid. According to According to the RealClearPolling poll average, Enlarge If Stein, Kennedy and West are included in the survey, the figure is 4.2%.
“There's no clear leader here yet, but Kamala Harris having a four-point lead within the margin of error is a lot better than Joe Biden having a three-point lead in Pennsylvania, one point in Wisconsin and just one point in Michigan, within the margin of error,” Enten continued. “These are three to five-point moves towards the Democratic candidate. There's clear momentum and it's clearly angering Donald Trump.”
Enten cited two figures from a New York Times poll conducted Aug. 5-9 among 1,973 voters in three states as the reason for Harris's sudden rise in support. (Related: 'Inflation is not going away': CNN guest says economy is catching up with Kamala Harris)
“She's not winning over Donald Trump's 2020 supporters. What is she doing? Number one, she's rallying the Democratic base,” Enten said. “So look at this… Biden only won 90% of the voters who voted for him in 2020 this spring. Where are they now? Kamala Harris is winning 93% of those voters. So you're seeing momentum.”
“The other thing we're seeing is non-traditional voters, countering the narrative that Donald Trump is bringing these voters off the sidelines and getting people who didn't vote in 2020 to vote. In the spring, Joe Biden only got 28% of people who didn't vote in 2020. By contrast, Kamala Harris is now getting 43% of those voters, up 15 points,” Enten continued. “So Kamala Harris is doing two things here: one, she's winning more non-traditional voters, and two, she's consolidating the Democratic base.”
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