CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that the current percentage of Americans who believe the US is on the right track is a “bad sign” for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Enten said an average of 28% of Americans now think the country is on the right track, and historically incumbent parties tend to lose in the next election. CNN reporters say that incumbent parties typically lose elections when an average of 25% believe the country is on the right track, but when that number reaches an average of 42%, a party is likely to win. said.
“When is the average when an incumbent party loses an election? Look, it’s only 25%. This compares very well with 28% of people who think this country is on the right track right now. It’s similar,” Enten said. “When the party in the White House wins…an average of 42% think the country is on the right track. This 25% is very similar to this 28%, but 42% is not at all similar. To me, This is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ campaign. The bottom line is that she looks more like a loser than a winner when it comes to keeping this country on the right track.”
The current rate of 28% is significantly lower than the average for previous incumbent presidents who were reelected. The average ranged from 39% in the 1996 election to 47% in 1984, when former President Ronald Reagan won re-election. (Related: CNN’s Harry Enten breaks historically low numbers among major groups ahead of 2024 election)
“If you look at history…in all of these cases, well over 28% of people thought this country was on the right track.In 1996, it was 39%; Over 47%. Of course, this was a huge blow to Ronald Reagan. So the White House Party at a time when only 28% of the public thought we were on the right track. There is no historical precedent for someone to be re-elected.” Enten continued.
Enten asserted that historical precedent could be broken, citing the 2022 midterm elections in which Democrats performed well. During the midterm elections, only 26% of Americans believed the country was on the right track.
The results of the midterm elections could mean President Trump is so unpopular that precedent doesn’t matter in this election, Enten suggested.
“Perhaps we’ve reached a point where Donald Trump’s unpopularity is so high that the historical norms and historical measures that we look at don’t actually mean what we think they do,” he said. They may have entered a new political environment. Let me just say this: Kamala Harris better hope so, or this right-way, wrong-way situation will happen to them. Because it won’t work out in their favor… They have to hope that the historical norm is broken, because if it isn’t, Donald Trump will remain in the White House for another term. ” Enten said.
The former president has a favorable rating of 43%, but 52% view him unfavorably. According to To FiveThirtyEight. Harris hold 47.3% had favorable reviews and 46.4% had unfavorable reviews.
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