CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday that he believes former President Donald Trump’s support among independents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is worrying Democrats. said.
Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in all three states. According to to the average of RealClearPolling. Enten said on CNN News Central that Trump currently has a slight lead among independents in these battleground states, but he has lost ground in 2020 when he trailed President Joe Biden in this demographic. He pointed out that things are changing. (Related article: Former Clinton pollster says Harris’ “fraud” is “bigger problem” she faces in election)
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“What do we know about independent businesses? The center of the district. Last time Joe Biden won these voters by 11 points. If you look at September 2024, one month. Previously, Kamala Harris was up 5 points among independents. But look at this now: She’s up only 2 points among the core blocs. “We’re down nine points from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign,” Enten told host John Berman. “Of course, this is a national situation…what’s going on in the key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that blue wall?”
“Joe Biden won by 5 points over Donald Trump last time. Look at where we are today. Of course, that’s within the margin of error, right? But again, it’s a movement, Mr. Berman, that’s the trend we’re looking at. “And if you change the group from Mr. Biden plus five people to one Mr. Trump. That’s the type of movement that Donald Trump likes to see, and I think it’s the type of movement that gives Democrats some excitement. I think so.”
Enten also argued that presidential candidates who win with the support of independent voters usually, but not always, secure electoral victory.
“Why are we seeing this movement in the district, perhaps away from the Democratic Party and towards Donald Trump? And this is true across the board, and it’s also true among independents. Maybe you’re out of the mainstream? In 2020, 38% said that about Joe Biden, but now 40% think Trump is too conservative. “It’s about the same amount,” he added. “The bottom line is that when we talk about ideology, Harris may be a little bit too far out of the mainstream, at least compared to Donald Trump.”
Harris supported many left-wing policies while running for president in 2020, but has changed some of her positions since her campaign began in July 2024. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, also has a far-left background on issues such as immigration and transgender policy.
Trump currently leads Harris in the other top four battleground states, according to RealClearPolling averages. Journalist Mark Halperin claimed Tuesday that if current early voting trends continue, Trump will become the next president on Nov. 5.
“Make no mistake about it, if these numbers hold true in states where we have even a partial understanding of what the data looks like, we’ll know on Election Day that Donald Trump will be president,” he said. Ta.
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