Republican candidate Donald Trump could be in a “very strong position” in Wisconsin if polls underestimate Trump’s support, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Thursday. said.
president joe biden won Mr. Enten had an 8-point lead over Mr. Trump in Wisconsin in the last poll, with a margin of about 1 point, 49.6% to 48.9%, but this is just a few weeks before the 2024 election. said current polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead may be overestimated. He said both Harris and Trump had a more than 80% chance of winning the election if they held Wisconsin, making it a “critically important” state to win.
“One of the things I’m really wondering about is whether this poll is actually going to be a good thing, because in 2020, as we’ll see in the final polls in Wisconsin, Because Biden was ahead by 8 points. [points]” Enten said. “The actual result was a one-point lead for Biden. Just to note, I rounded that number up, so I think it was 0.63 percentage points.” So the problem is, this poll actually showed the correct result. Or will we underestimate Donald Trump once again? If so, Donald Trump would be in a very strong position in the Badger State. ”
If she holds Wisconsin, Harris would have an 82% chance of winning the 270 electoral votes she needs to win, while Trump would have an 88% chance of winning. “Important.” Added Enten. (Related: CNN’s Harry Enten says Harris’ numbers in the Great Lakes states are significantly lower than Clinton’s and Biden’s)
“If they win Wisconsin, they have a chance of winning the election, but for Kamala Harris, if she wins Wisconsin, she has an 82% chance of winning the election,” Enten said. “For Donald Trump, he has an 88% chance of winning the election, because the bottom line is that Wisconsin is more important to Kamala Harris than it is to Donald Trump.” Of course, it’s part of the Great Lakes Wall. is. ”
Harris holds a narrow 0.3 percentage point lead in Wisconsin, 47.9% to 47.6%. According to To FiveThirtyEight. The vice president holds a narrow lead in Michigan, 47.7% to 47.1%, and in Pennsylvania, 48% to 47.5%. According to to more FiveThirtyEight votes.
biden won Michigan State led by about 3 points in 2020, but it was five-thirty-eighth. public opinion poll That suggests he has a nearly 8-point lead over Trump. He also won Pennsylvania from 50% to 48.8%, but FiveThirtyEight public opinion poll It suggested that he had a nearly 5-point lead over the then-president.
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