Coconino County Treasurer Siri Muranee said the county is looking to invest in public health, flood control, forest restoration and operational capacity this year and is doing so based on its long-term economic plan.

When Maleney was hired as county treasurer, deputy county chief Andy Bartelsen said she helped develop the region’s 10-year financial plan.

The 10-Year Plan considers the county’s projected demand for the next 10 years, but also considers the possibility of a recession.

“When we look at economic trends, we see that there are two recession-type periods roughly every decade. We really want to make sure we protect ourselves from the trough,” Bartelsen said.

Maleny said county officials expected a recession when the budget was drawn up last year.

“The numbers projected in this budget certainly reflect the prospect of a recession,” Maleney said. “In fact, looking at our 2023 numbers, we have continued to grow in the first half of the fiscal year and are on track to deliver on our anticipated guidance for county and state shared sales taxes. The economy will continue. ”

The largest portion of the money flowing into the county this year comes from government subsidies and money injections to deal with major emergencies such as fires and floods. Behind these funds are shared state sales taxes and local tax revenues.

Maleny said state revenues were boosted by events like the Super Bowl. Those sources of income are likely to dwindle.

In planning for a potential economic downturn, Maleney and her team first look across Arizona and then narrow their approach to plan the likely direction of Coconino County’s economy.

“The state-level Legislative and Budget Committee will release figures on what the growth model will be and where they think the money will go,” Bartelsen said. “Interestingly, they’re not always as conservative as we are. Siri always looks at it closely and says, ‘Well, I think that revenue forecast is a bit aggressive for a community in Northern Arizona.’ We’re really applying our local knowledge and looking at interest rates and what the Fed is going to do with regards to whether or not they raise interest rates, and how that impacts us as a community that relies heavily on tourism revenue. Considering what to give. ”

Maleny said some counties rely heavily on stable revenue sources such as property taxes. In Coconino County, the property tax base is not as large as the state’s metropolitan areas and tends to depend more heavily on the sales tax base.

“Even compared to Arizona, the state-shared sales tax revenue is a bit more stable due to a more advanced shift in base to retail in Arizona. “It’s driven by tourism—hospitality, entertainment, restaurants and bars—and Coconino County has a higher percentage than the rest of the state,” she said.

Maleny said a 10-year financial plan would be a valuable asset as inflation continues to threaten across the country, creating instability in the hospitality and tourism industries.

Maleny added: “We can invest in one-off initiatives because we know that in times of economic prosperity, returns will be above that line or beyond sustainable levels, but in times of recession If those economic drivers aren’t that strong for us, we need to bridge that gap by having reserves on hand without cutting service, and luckily that baseline I was able to find some great modeling to help establish a level and determine if you’re above or below that line.

“What we really don’t want to do is say we’re in a period of prosperity and think we’re just going to grow. I would like to see it as a matter of fact.” “

Budgeting involves an element of uncertainty, especially when Mother Nature is involved.

“We try to anticipate the unexpected and take that into account over a long period of ten years. Told.

Bartelsen said more than $116 million of the budget has been allocated for fire and flood control. Its funding comes primarily from federal funds.

“We continue to seek federal funding to manage the impact of fires on national forests because national forest fires impact local communities,” he said.

Fiscal 2023 was shaped by devastating wildfires, post-fire flooding, heavy snowfall and rapid snowmelt.

“Even in the past year, in the face of two devastating wildfires and post-wildfire flooding, our company continues to recover and remains resilient,” said Patrice Horstmann, Chairman of the Supervisory Board. Stated. “The 2024 Budget adopted by the Oversight Board sets out a strong financial plan for our company to continue on our path to recovery. Provides strategic investment.This balanced budget will be invested in a capital improvement program to implement critical projects across the county.”

In the spring, the county’s road infrastructure collapsed. All winter long, maintenance equipment and workers were subjected to rigorous work by persistent rainfall.

“If you look at the flood-affected areas based on the wildfires, you’ll see a lot of projects going on. It really gives us the ability to improve infrastructure and things like that,” said Berthelsen. “What is happening now is the restoration and improvement of some areas where the infrastructure has failed, for example Slayton Ranch Road.”

While the budget is focused on strengthening community resilience in the face of wildfires and extreme weather, it also addresses some of the county’s needs that became apparent after the COVID-19 pandemic. ing.

Barthlesen and Maleney met with the Arizona Daily Sun via video chat. The tool has also been adopted by the Supervisory Board for public meetings.

While most of the county’s business and information sharing has been moved to digital platforms under social distancing requirements, much of that infrastructure is still in heavy use today.

That’s why the budget reflects investments in cybersecurity, said Stephen Pellegrini, county communications manager. He said the county plans to expand its IT staff and work on “security projects.”

“The impact of COVID-19 has allowed us to make the most of our technological capabilities. We also know that all companies are vulnerable to cyberattacks, we are attacked so often that we just need to make sure our systems are protected from attacks,” said Barthlesen. said.

The pandemic ushering in an era of increased dependence on the Internet has also revealed inequalities in digital access. That’s why the budget will open up space for rural broadband initiatives, he said.

“We are the second largest county in the country and have some of the most rural areas in the country. It is important for us to continue to address and invest in these connectivity needs,” Bartelsen said. rice field.

Since 2020, recreational activists (people who hike, climb, and cycle outdoors) have flocked to remote and rural parts of Coconino County.

“We know that our visit has had a really big impact on our search and rescue groups and they are probably some of the busiest people in the county. can also help,” Bartelsen said.

Despite several new and notable sources of revenue, including federal grant funds to address flood control and post-fire community needs, and funding schemes to cover the cost of capital improvements, the budgeting process continues. It’s routine for Ms Maleney and her team. .

“Even if we go all the way to the end, it’s not going to change much because of our long-term approach to financial planning. We want to be able to avoid large fluctuations or fluctuations in terms of levels, general funding support and services,” Malanyi said. “In many ways it becomes a bit routine because of the planning work we do all year long.”

After adopting this week’s budget, the Oversight Board will enter its annual summer vacation. Regular meetings will resume on Tuesday, August 1st.