Governor Gavin Newsom should now shift his focus from national politics to the crucial election in his own home state.
In a very important election season, we have an important politician who suddenly finds himself out of a key political position, but he might be able to find a key job here in California.
Several congressional races in California will help determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives next term, and Newsom could help Democrats retake a chamber currently narrowly controlled by Republicans.
But Newsom will likely have to lower his sights from national celebrity to a local role as a party warrior.
Newsom has already been removed from the national race by Vice President Kamala Harris and the governor himself at the Democratic National Convention.
Harris' lightning rise to the Democratic presidential nomination after Biden's withdrawal has removed Newsom from the running for the White House until at least 2028, and perhaps forever.
If Harris beats Republican Donald Trump in November, Newsom would not face her in a primary, as she would be up for reelection in 2028. By 2032, Harris will be 64 years old, still young compared to Biden and Trump, but with a wave of younger presidential aspirants running, Newsom will have been out of public office for six years.
If Harris loses to Trump, Newsom could run in 2028. But there are plenty of other contenders, including Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who gained national prominence as Harris' running mate.
Either way, I have no faith that Newsom really wants to run for president. Deep down, he has what might be called “fire in the belly.”
I think he just wants to be seen as a presidential candidate, to be featured prominently in the national media as a leading candidate, and to be seen as a national policy maker. That gives him more status.
I was convinced of this when Governor Newsom declined a coveted invitation to speak on the first night of the convention, saying he had flown in too late from California after attending his children's school orientation.
Really? If he has presidential ambitions, a back-to-school event takes precedence over a nationally televised convention speech? Hard to believe. And given his longtime alliance with Harris, couldn't Newsom have arranged another speaking slot?
I believe Newsom didn't speak because he had difficulty reading the teleprompter, and it's common for the standard-bearer team at national conventions to review the speaker's script in advance and insist that he follow it closely.
“He hates speeches,” a Newsom aide once told me, “because they stoke fear.”
That's because Newsom has dyslexia, a lifelong problem that requires him to repeatedly practice his speeches.
In fact, Governor Newsom has stopped giving his annual State of the State address to a joint session of the Legislature, usually citing some kind of contrived excuse, because in reality, the speech is difficult to read.
That's a shame, because he's good at improvising.
Either way, about a dozen other governors used the convention to deliver televised speeches that drew national attention, including several who appeared to be presidential candidates who were one step ahead of Newsom.
Harris seems unlikely to give Newsom the high-profile national surrogate role Biden enjoyed when he was running. Both Harris and Newsom are San Francisco liberals who are naturally suspicious of moderate swing-state voters. Newsom doesn't need another left-liberal to promote his candidacy.
“People in other states hate us,” said former Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “Not only is she from California, she's from the Bay Area. I don't need to put a yellow highlighter on that and do anything for her. I wouldn't send him on the campaign trail.”
But California has several hotly contested congressional races where Trump could give Democrats a boost.
“He can certainly help raise money for these campaigns,” said Sragow, who until recently was publisher of the California Target Book, which tracks state and federal elections.
But Sragow added, “If I were running a Democratic campaign, I don't know that I would want to invite the governor to a rally,” and “I don't know that it would be helpful.”
That's because in most of his hotly contested congressional districts, Mr. Newsom lost his 2022 reelection bid to a little-known, rural state senator, Republican Brian Dahl, and so he may not have much influence among Republicans and independents. And most of those districts contain a disproportionate number of Republican voters.
“If he wants to work together, he could work together in a very targeted way to increase Democratic turnout. That would be a good use of his time and resources. But he has to stay within the Democratic family,” Sragow said.
Of the 10 districts generally expected to be hotly contested, Republicans currently hold seven and Democrats hold three, most of which are in Southern California, but three are in the San Joaquin Valley.
Governors don't typically focus on congressional races — candidates run on federal, not state, issues — but there is a lot of overlap between the two, and Newsom has built a national profile while running for his people on federal issues.
By being a team player and contributing locally to help Democrats retake the House, Newsom could garner national party support if he does indeed run for president.
Meanwhile, in Sacramento, he'll have more time to focus on his day job. He has a lot on his plate.