Whether House Republicans will maintain their narrow majority will likely depend on the results of four races in New York, where Republican incumbents in districts that have traditionally been pro-Biden are in tough re-election battles.
Democrats need to do that flip Republicans only have four seats left to regain the House majority, and party operatives are Zero adjustment A group of freshman congressmen representing highly competitive New York districts were presented as a perfect pick-up opportunity. These Republican incumbents have faced voter registration and Fundraising activities In addition to a budget deficit, the campaign and Republican operatives believe the race is a close one, running in a presidential election year where voter turnout is likely to increase, according to interviews with campaign officials and written statements provided to the paper. All of the incumbent Republican candidates are optimistic that they will win on Election Day. Daily Caller News Foundation.
Incumbent New York Republican congressmen Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Mark Molinaro and Brandon Williams also have to overcome other challenges. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the district he represents by a wide margin. Each candidate won by less than 5 points. New York state Republican candidates in 2022 midterm elections historic You will get profit.
In D’Esposito’s Long Island neighborhood, Biden beat In 2020, he beat former President Donald Trump by more than 14 points, making the district the most pro-Biden seat in the country held by a Republican seeking reelection.
In 2022, D’Esposito defeated her opponent, former Hempstead Town coach Laura Guillen, by four points in New York’s Fourth District, and the two were scheduled to meet again in November. Siena College poll conducted from October 13th to 17th. showed Guillen leads the contest with 12 points.
D’Esposito’s campaign told DCNF that the Siena College poll was “fundamentally flawed,” saying the vote was held on the Jewish holiday of Sukkot and that the campaign overwhelmingly supported him. They argued that this was because they were unable to collect an accurate sample of likely Jewish voters.
“In areas with large Jewish populations, pollsters interviewed people on important Jewish holy days. In fact, the majority of Jews do not use electronic devices at this time. If Siena’s numbers are even closer to accurate, Democrats would have spent tens of millions of dollars to defeat D’Esposito while completely ignoring the statistical dead heat (according to Siena’s data) in the neighboring NY-1 district. ,” Matt Capp said. A spokesperson for D’Esposito’s campaign added.
public opinion poll carried out Gotham Polling & Analytics’ Oct. 11-19 poll showed D’Esposito up 1 point, with 6% of voters undecided. Capp told DCNF that an influx of immigrants into New York City, a recently established congestion pricing program and local opposition to offshore wind power keep the district in Republican favor. (Related article: Kathy Hochul recognizes the potential for climate change to harm the Democratic Party and is reportedly trying to pump the brakes)
“There is an advantage to the New York race in that the Democrats almost wiped out the state,” New York Republican Party consultant Bill O’Reilly told DCNF. “We feel it in the chaos of taxes, crime and immigration.”
“There’s a built-in tendency to turn Republican this time,” O’Reilly added.
Mr. Guillen outpaid Mr. D’Esposito by more than $700,000, according to . Submitted documents In cooperation with the Federal Election Commission. cook political report Specify The race is run as a “toss”.
O’Reilly pointed to Lawler as the candidate with the best chance of winning among the four incumbents, running in a district that Biden won by more than 10 points in 2020. condemned Approximately $1.3 million in his hands opponentformer Democratic congressman Mondaire Jones of New York, according to FEC filings. Mr. O’Reilly served as the spokesperson for Mr. Lawler’s 2022 campaign.
“He has worked incredibly hard in the district. He is a classic example of someone who has differentiated himself,” O’Reilly told DCNF. “He’s a bipartisan guy. He works hard and talks to everyone. Like he said, he’s in the district. He’s worked hard to make himself known. Tanda.”
Despite the latest independent poll showing Lawler with just a one-point lead, O’Reilly told DCNF that Lawlor’s internal polling shows the candidate with an even wider lead. . cook political report changed On October 25th, the rating changed from “boosted” to “thin Republican.”
Mr. O’Reilly also said that Mr. Lawlers told the DCNF: condemnation Anti-Israel protests at Columbia University over the past year support This is because Israel in its war with Hamas is likely to benefit one of the constituencies with one of the highest percentages of Jewish voters in the country. (Related: Mike Lawler and Richie Torres want to send anti-Semitism monitors to campuses and extract funds from non-compliant schools)
“Jewish voters in the 17th Congressional District and across the country will have a decisive influence on the outcome of elections across the country,” Lawler campaign spokesperson Chris Russell told DCNF. “Orthodox, Reform, Conservative, and Hasidic voters all want the basics in life: safe neighborhoods, good schools, and a strong economy. Republicans offer winning arguments on all of these issues, which is why Jewish voters will support candidates like Mike Lawler this November. ”
roll call specified Williams is the most vulnerable member of the House of Representatives seeking re-election due to redistricting that would shift the Republican incumbent’s New York Central District more toward Democrats. he lead The latest internal poll by Williams’ campaign shows her trailing her opponent, New York State Senator John Mannion, by one point. The Cook Political Report calls the race “Lean Democratic.”
Taylor Waynes, a Williams campaign official, told the DCNF that their focus is not on the presidential ticket, but rather on the Albany and state Democrats’ push and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s signature. He said that it was a “disastrous policy” that was enacted in the United States.
“We’re running against Mr. Albany because we’re running against a New York state senator who has been involved in all of these disastrous policy decisions and who should own the record,” Waynes told DCNF. he said. “Our opponents criticized voters as ‘ignorant’ for voting to provide taxpayer-funded free health care to undocumented immigrants and for being concerned about the immigration crisis impacting their communities. .”
Waynes also told DCNF that the campaign is optimistic because of strong early voting numbers among registered Republicans. “We are confident and moving towards victory,” added Waynes.
O’Reilly described Molinaro, the 2018 New York Republican gubernatorial candidate who currently represents the Hudson Valley, as a “warrior.” Mr. Molinaro is currently in a fierce re-election battle. trail The latest polls show him trailing Democratic opponent Josh Riley by four points. molinaro beat In 2022, they will be less than two points behind Riley.
The Molinaro vs. Riley rematch is the most expensive New York House race ever, with more than $25 million worth of political advertising. Things are going well into the air.
“This race is about priorities,” Molinaro told DCNF. “I’m for securing the border and putting northern New Yorkers first. My opponent, Josh Riley, is for keeping the border open and giving illegal immigration taxpayer money, like credit cards and hotels. I support giving them special benefits.”
Cook Political Report rates Molinaro’s reelection bid a “failure.”
New York House Republicans, led by Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, also flip The competitive seat in the mid-Hudson Valley was held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Pat Ryan.
Republican candidate Alison Esposito is running as the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor of New York in 2022. The most recent independent poll, conducted in early October, showed Esposito successor Ryan was 5 points behind. According to the Cook Political Report, the Esposito-Ryan election result is expected to be “Democratic-leaning.”
“Allison’s message of supporting law enforcement, securing our borders, creating jobs, strengthening our economy, and protecting our allies resonates across NY-18,” Esposito campaign spokesman Ben・Mr. Weiner told DCNF. “Since we launched our campaign over a year ago, we’ve heard from Hudson Valley residents across the district who say they’re ready for change. They know Pat Ryan is on the wrong side of every issue and are prepared to send a common-sense leader to D.C. That’s why Allison is soaring in the polls and right behind Pat Ryan.
“We are confident we have the momentum and winning message to flip NY-18 and secure victory on election night,” Weiner added.
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