WASHINGTON (AP) – Voters in southern Arizona are set to elect new congressional representatives following Tuesday’s special election to fill the vacancy left by the late Democrat Raul Grijalva, who passed away due to complications from cancer treatment in March.

The victor will complete the final 15 months of Grijalva’s term in the 7th Congressional District, which stretches from Yuma to Tucson and includes nearly the entire Arizona-Mexico border.

While this election does not directly influence control of the U.S. House, it fills one of two remaining empty seats in a Democratic district that could potentially affect the Republicans’ slim 219-213 majority. A third Republican seat in Tennessee won’t be filled until December.

The main contenders for Grijalva’s seat include former Pima County superintendent Adelita Grijalva, his daughter, and Republican candidate Daniel Butierrez, a contractor and small business owner. There are also two third-party candidates listed.

Adelita emerged victorious in the five-way Democratic primary held in July, gaining support from two Democratic U.S. Senators from Arizona along with independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and progressive representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Her closest rival was social media influencer Deja Foxx, who captured around 22% of the primary votes.

In the Republican primary, Butierrez garnered about 61% of the votes, compared to restaurant owner Jorge Rivas and businessman Jimmy Rodriguez. In a 2024 matchup against Raul Grijalva, Butierrez secured approximately 37% of the Republican votes, with Donald Trump winning Arizona in that election.

Adelita Grijalva holds a notable financial edge over Butierrez, raising $1.3 million for her campaign, including funds from the competitive July primary, and entering the final three weeks with around $109,000 in cash. By contrast, Butierrez raised approximately $72,000 and lent an additional $136,000 to his campaign, starting the month with close to $60,000 on hand.

The 7th District predominantly comprises Hispanic voters, covering parts of six counties, specifically including populous Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties. While Maricopa often influences statewide elections, Pima County is the primary contributor to the district’s registered voters, composing over 60% of them. Following Pima, Maricopa and Yuma counties provide the next highest voting potential, succeeded by Santa Cruz County.

Democrats enjoy a 2-1 registration advantage over Republicans within the entire district and in five out of the six counties. Republicans hold a slight edge in a small portion of Pinal County within the district.

In the 2024 presidential election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won approximately 61% of the votes in the district, compared to Trump’s 38%. At the county level, Harris received about 64% of the votes in Pima, while Trump garnered 66% in Pinal County, which accounted for less than 1% of the total district votes.

Raul Grijalva had represented this area in southern Arizona since his appointment in 2003, and most of the current District 7 has been held by Congressional Democrats since Arizona gained statehood in 1912.

The Associated Press does not make predictions on elections and only declares winners when it’s clear there are no remaining scenarios by which candidates might close the gap. If the race remains too close to call, the AP will follow developments, like candidate concessions or victory claims, making it clear that a winner has not yet been declared.

In Arizona, a recount occurs automatically if the voting margin is less than 0.5%. The AP can announce a winner even for a race subject to recount if it determines that the recount won’t change the outcome.

Looking ahead, a special election in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is set for Tuesday, with voting concluding at 7 PM local time, or 10 PM ET. Results are not expected until after 11 PM, and Arizona does not observe daylight saving time.

As for voter participation, registered voters in the 7th Congressional District can take part in this special election. As of August 25, there were over 478,000 registered voters, which includes both active and inactive individuals. About 39% were Democrats, around 21% Republicans, and roughly 184,000 voters were unaffiliated with any party. A total of about 83,000 votes were cast in July’s special primary, representing about 19% of registered voters.

In the 2024 U.S. House general election, 271,000 ballots were cast, accounting for approximately 55% of registered voters, with around 77% voting prior to Election Day.

For the 2024 presidential election, the AP was able to report early results in District 7 at 10 PM, with the final count concluding at 6:44 AM ET, showing around 55% of the total vote counted.

As of now, there are still 406 days remaining until the midterm elections in 2026.