The future direction of federal energy policy related to the transportation sector is an important issue that will be determined in some way by the outcome of the presidential election. What remains unclear is how much change President Trump’s inauguration will bring.

Given that he is the founder and CEO of Tesla; Elon Musk He is a major supporter of former President Donald Trump, so it seems unlikely that Trump would try to eliminate the EV subsidies and tax breaks included in his policy. inflation control law (Ira). Of course, these provisions constitute the “carrot” part of the Biden-Harris series of carrots and sticks designed to encourage the expansion of EVs in the U.S. market. (Related: Carla Sands: Peace Through Power Needs American Energy)

The “stick” aspect of this approach manifests itself in a more rigid form. Tailpipe discharge regulations Increased vehicle mileage requirements imposed on domestic automakers. The Harris administration is likely to seek to further increase federal pressure through these command-and-control regulatory measures, while the Trump administration will be more likely to ease it.

But doing so will be difficult and time-consuming, and much will depend on the political will of relevant agency and department leaders appointed by President Trump.

These and other mandatory EV-related policies imposed during the Biden-Harris era were aimed at moving the U.S. auto industry in line with the administration’s policies. set goals of having EV The set of policies does not itself constitute a strict mandate, but is designed to produce similar preconceived outcomes.

This is the kind of heavy-handed federal effort to control markets that President Trump has spoken out against throughout his first and second terms in office.

new report released this week This data from big energy data and analytics company Enverus appears likely to influence future Trump administration officials to take a more favorable view of the potential for EVs to grow as part of the nation’s transportation fleet. It will be done. Perhaps the most surprising news in the study, conducted by Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, is that EV prices are expected to be lower than comparable gas-powered models as early as next year. It’s a prediction. battery cost. (Related: Biden-Harris administration wiretaps organizations supporting open borders and reparations to help spend taxpayer dollars on deficit states)

“Battery costs will fall rapidly, with cell costs below $100/kWh in 2024. [2025] “Forward-facing EVs will be more affordable than traditional combustible engine EVs,” EIR analyst Carson Karl said in a release. Additionally, Kearl said, EIR predicts that the number of EVs on U.S. roads will exceed “40 million (20%) by 2035 and 80 million (40%) by 2040.” said.

Declining battery costs are Lithium price collapse. Somewhat ironically, this price collapse was primarily caused by the failure of EV expansion to meet unrealistic targets set by Western governments, including the United States. These same causal relationships mean that lithium, battery, and EV prices are likely to rise again if the rapid market penetration predicted by the EIR materializes. (Related: David Blackmon: Who Will Lead Energy Policy in the Harris-Waltz Administration)

In the US market, the only certainty about all of this is that something has to change soon. Monday, Ford Motor Company reported The company lost another $1.2 billion on its Ford Model E EV division.^rd This brings the cumulative loss for the first nine months of 2024 to $3.7 billion.

Energy analyst and author Robert Blythe Pointed out in his Substack newsletter The Model E loss is equivalent to the $3.7 billion profit Ford reported this year at its Ford Blue division, which makes light internal combustion cars and trucks.

While Tesla is doing well, with the successful launch of the Cybertruck and other new products returning profits and boosting its stock price, other pure-play U.S. EV makers are struggling to survive. Companions GM and Stellantis, both of which have merged with Ford, are also struggling with the transition to more electric vehicle models.

None of this is sustainable and requires a readjustment of policies. Next Tuesday’s election will determine the course of the policy shift.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, specializing in public policy and communications.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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