SANTA FE – The 2024 New Mexico Senate election could be a mess.

The rezoning created two vacancies, one covering Rio Rancho and parts of northwest Albuquerque, and the other extending from Isleta Pueblo to the Arizona line.

Retirement and primary election issues could rock Congress next year, with at least a few House members considering plans to run for the Senate.

And Albuquerque is showing itself as a hotly contested area as usual.

Four of the Senate’s five closest constituencies are in Albuquerque or Rio Rancho. The fifth is the county of Valencia.

“I believe there are some opportunities, especially in the metropolitan areas,” Senate Minority Leader Greg Baka, Republican Belem, said in an interview. “There are so many problems facing New Mexico, and I think the Republican Party really has the answers.”

Democrats have a lot of territory to defend. They hold a 27-15 majority in the Senate and will defend competing seats in Albuquerque and elsewhere.

But they also have pick-up opportunities, including Isleta, Laguna and newly reorganized neighborhoods including Acoma Pueblo.

“I think it’s fair to say Senate Democrats have a very good feeling about the 2024 cycle,” said Senate Majority Leader Peter Worth (D-Santa Fe). “We have had a series of important victories in Congress this term.”

But now, one year after the primaries, there are many uncertainties in the situation.

Senators who have yet to decide whether they are seeking re-election, such as Democratic Senator Bill Tolman of Albuquerque and Republican Senator Gay Kernan of Hobbes, have no reason to announce anything anytime soon.

And, of course, by the time voters begin voting in the general election, the selection of presidential candidates and other factors will shape the broader political environment.

It’s too early to tell which parties will face political headwinds, said Brian Sanderoff, a nonpartisan analyst and president of research and polling, a state land-clearing firm.

“It’s going to be difficult for the Republican Party to have a large expansion,” he said.

The 2024 ballot in New Mexico will include a race for president, a seat in the U.S. Senate, and all 112 seats in Congress. A state senator stands for election every four years, and a congressional district is voted for every two years.

West swing seat

Next year’s election will be the first to be based on the new Senate map adopted by the tough 2021 Special Congress.

With lawmakers occupying the constituency in downtown Albuquerque now represented by Democrat Gerardo Ortiz y Pino and moving it to the West Side, Albuquerque and Rio Rancho are likely more Republican-leaning but competitive. A new seat was born.

Senator Ortiz y Pino, in his 19th year, is not seeking re-election.

The new version of District 12 will extend from the Paradise Hills district north of Albuquerque to Rio Rancho.

An analysis by Research & Polling found that Republicans outscore Democrats by six points in the districts that make up the new district. This analysis examined elections over the last decade.

But over the last few election cycles, Democrats have increased their wins in Albuquerque.

Democratic leader Wirth describes District 12 as a “50-50” district. He said the Democrats have a strong track record to continue, including the repeal of abortion laws, constitutional reforms to increase funding for early childhood education, and the legalization of marijuana.

Republicans see the seat as a golden opportunity. The district already has two prominent Republican candidates, former state senator Candice Gould and Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Brock, who ran for governor last year and lost.

native voting power

The Democrats have a chance to overturn the other vacant seat.

The new map features District 30, currently represented by Republican Joshua Sanchez of Veguita, and stretches from the Manzano Mountains to the Arizona border.

The change is expected to increase the influence of Native American voters. District 30 includes Isleta, Laguna, the Pueblo of Acoma and the Navajo Reservation of the Alamo.

Native Americans make up 35% of the adult population, and the district will have a sizeable Democratic majority.

The change in boundaries would match Senator Sanchez with Republican leader Baka of the nearby 29th congressional district, meaning they would have to move or face each other to secure a seat on the floor. .

Baka said he had nothing to announce in that regard. But he noted that Sanchez is well-positioned to flip the constituencies in 2020 and appeal to new borderline voters in the 30th district.

More broadly, Baka said Republican senators have a lot to offer voters, especially around crime, borders and economic growth.

He said Republicans played a key role in crafting amendments to the state’s medical malpractice laws, even if they outnumbered Democrats.

The two seats vacated by redistricting are sure to be a priority for both parties in 2024.

“These two districts are the most likely to reverse,” Sundaroff said.

Severance pay

The Senate has the longest-serving senator, and both parties are at a time when they are preparing to retire.

However, it is not yet entirely clear who will oppose re-election.

In April, Republican Senator Cliff Piltle of Roswell said he would not seek re-election because of a change in districts. The announcement comes a month after a sheriff’s deputy responded to an altercation in which he claimed he caught Piltle and his wife with another woman.

Rep. Candy Spence Ezell (R-Roswell) said she plans to run for Piltle’s seat. It is a heavily Republican area that occupies part of southeastern New Mexico.

Mr. Tallman, a Democrat who occupies most of Albuquerque’s Northeast Heights constituency, said he had not yet decided whether to seek re-election.

His constituency leans Democratic but is competitive.

Kernan, a Republican from southeastern New Mexico, said he was weighing his options. Her district has the most Republican votes in the state, according to Research & Polling analysis.

Rep. Larry Scott (R-Hobbs) said Mr. Kernan is considering running for the Senate if he chooses to retire.

Meanwhile, the longest-serving Senator, Stuart Ingle (Portales), said he planned to run for re-election.

But if not, Rep. Greg Nibert (R-Roswell) will be running.

“I will never face Stuart,” Nibert said in an interview. “But if he doesn’t run, I will.”

Main issue

Of course, the Senate can change significantly even if the party composition does not change significantly.

In 2020, for example, five Democratic incumbents lost primary elections to left-wing challengers, while two conservative Republican incumbents defeated Republican incumbents.

Rep. James Townsend (R, Artesia) is among those considering running for the Senate, and will likely line up against Republican Senator Ron Griggs of Alamogordo.

Townsend said it wouldn’t be a factor whether Griggs would run for re-election.

“If I decide to run, I will run because I believe it will bring more,” Townsend said.

Griggs and Townshend described themselves as friends. It is a constituency with high Republican support.

Griggs said he plans to seek re-election. He said he respected Townsend’s decision and said politically “we see almost everything the same way”.

next step

The race will be watched next year after parliamentarians convene for a 30-day session that runs until February.

Candidate notification dates are in March, with the primary on June 4th and the general election on November 5th.

All MPs, even those in constituencies that are safe for one party, are trying to adjust to the reshaped boundaries.

“We’re all getting used to having new voters,” Worth said.