As the 2024 state elections approach, Republicans and Democrats are already targeting several key constituencies that could determine which party takes control of Congress.
Republicans hold a majority of one seat each in the state House of Representatives and the Senate, and some of the early forces are vying for seats representing highly competitive constituencies.
Legislative District 2
Former Republican Senator Steve Kaiser’s resignation from Congress in June has shaken up how the 2024 constituency rolls out. Rep. Judy Schwievert of the Phoenix Democratic Party has announced that she is looking to move to Kaiser’s seat.
“I am running for the state Senate because I need someone who can help me focus on the most difficult challenges facing Arizonans: teachers, affordable housing, and the water crisis,” Schwievert said in a statement.
Kaiser’s successor, Republican former state congressman Shauna Bolick, called for unity among Republicans in her constituency and said she was aiming to elect a Republican to Schwievert’s House of Representatives.
Rep. Justin Wilmes (R-Phoenix) declined to nominate Mr. Kaiser for the seat.
Kaiser won 51.8% of the vote in the 2022 election over Democrat Jeanne Castin, who won 48.2%.
Republican Josh Barnett became the next candidate following Kaiser’s resignation, but was not elected by the Maricopa County Supervisory Board. Barnett has announced his intention to run for the district’s Senate seat in 2024.
Two other Republicans, Jeff Nelson and Neil DeSanty, submitted statements of interest in the district’s House seat.
Legislative District 4
District Rep. Matt Gress (Republican, Phoenix) and Laura Terek (Democrat, Scottsdale) submitted a statement requesting the continuation of the seat.
In the 2022 election, Mr. Greth won the most votes in the district’s House of Representatives election with 34.72% of the vote. Telehi finished ahead of Republican Maria Sims with 33.46%.
Arizona Republic Mary Jo Pitzle tweeted Sen. Chistin Marsh (D-Phoenix) is running for re-election.
LD4 is also a highly competitive constituency leaning Republican.
Two other Republicans, Kenneth Bowers Jr. and Pamela Carter, are interested in winning LD4’s Senate seat.
Bowers advocates for criminal law reform and supports former President Donald Trump. Former Republican Speaker of the House Rusty Bowers, as he is not a relative.
Carter ran unsuccessfully for the 2022 Scottsdale City Council election.
Legislative District 9
Rep. Seth Bratman (D-Mesa) and Rep. Lorena Austin (D-Mesa) have submitted statements of interest for their current seat in 2024.
The district leaned Democratic, defeating both Republicans Kathy Pearce and Mary Ann Mendoza, with Austin winning 26.52% of the vote and Bratman 25.17%.
Senator Eva Burch (D-Mesa) has also expressed interest in running for re-election. In the district’s 2022 Senate election, she defeated Republican Robert Scantlebury with 52.5% of the district’s vote.
Several Republicans have expressed interest in running for congressional seats in the district, including Scantlebury, to the Office of the Secretary of State. Republicans Edwin Gonzalez and Kylie Barber are seeking LD9 House seats.
Gonzalez says he’s a proponent of school choice, wanting to reduce health care costs and increase transparency in health care costs.
Legislative District 13
LD13 is ready to welcome new faces. Former Republican Rep. Liz Harris has been kicked out of the House, and Rep. Jennifer Paulik (D-Chandler) has admitted she won’t run for office in 2024, even though her term runs until 2026.
“I am confident that this LD and the Democrats are well prepared to move the map toward a majority,” Paulik said in a written statement.
That leaves Harris’ replacements, Rep. Julie Willoughby (R-Chandler) and Senator JD Messnard (R-Chandler), as incumbents in slightly more Republican-leaning constituencies.
Willoughby fell just about 300 votes short of Harris by the 2022 election. Both candidates received about 32% of the vote in their constituencies, while Paulik received 35%.
Former Republican state senator Jeff Wenninger has expressed interest in running for the district’s House of Representatives. Mr. Wenninger, who represented Mr. Chandler in the House from 2015 to 2023, lost the Republican primary for the nomination for state treasurer.
Democrat Shante Salisbury is also interested in a House seat. She Salisbury is the founder of the Janice Women’s Center, which provides resources for homeless women and women suffering from domestic violence.
Messnar is the only person to have submitted a statement of interest to the Senate in that constituency. He defeated Democrat Cynthia Hans last year.
Legislative District 16
So far, all three members of Congress representing LD16 have formally submitted expressions of interest seeking re-election: Rep. Teresa Martinez (R-Casa Grande) and Rep. Keith Seaman (D-Casa Grande), and only Senator TJ Shopp (R-Coolidge).
At a recent meeting of the Arizona GOP’s Western Pinal County Chapter, Shope and Martinez introduced Republican Chris Lopez as the candidate they hoped to win Seaman’s seat, with Shopp calling Lopez a future seat mate.
LD16, while leaning Republican, was one of the battlegrounds of 2022. Shopp’s race was the least competitive, with 55.7% of the vote, defeating Democrat Kirby Taylor.
In the House election, Martinez won 36.46% of the vote, while Seaman defeated Republican Rob Hudelson with 32.08% of the vote.
Legislative District 17
LD17 was not considered a highly competitive constituency prior to the 2022 election, with a nearly 10-point Republican advantage in the Independent Land Readjustment Commission’s competition analysis.
The district is represented by Rep. Rachel Jones (Republican, Tucson). Corey McGarr (R-Tucson) and Senator Justin Wadsak (R-Tucson) have a tighter race in 2022 than many expected.
Wadsak defeated Democrat Mike Nickerson with 51.2% of the vote. In the House election, Jones won the most votes with 26.16%, while McGarr defeated Democrat Dana Almond with 25.66% and Almond with 24.85% (about 1,900 votes).
Unlike other hotly contested Republican-leaning districts, the Democrats fielded two candidates for the House of Representatives while other constituencies adopted a one-shot strategy. Democrat Brian Radford also received 23.34% of the vote in his constituency.
Former Democratic Congressman Morgan Abraham has announced his candidacy for the 2024 LD17 House election. Abraham previously ran for LD18 in 2022 but lost the Democratic primary.
Abraham calls himself a “centrist candidate” with a military career that “does well against MAGA extremists.” Senator Mark Kelly and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes also won LD17 with nearly 53% of the vote. Both faced MAGA candidates Blake Masters and Mark Finchem respectively.
“Voters in the 17th Legislative District demand common-sense solutions to Arizona’s toughest challenges, and our current representatives prioritize extremism over getting things done,” Abraham said in a statement.
All three incumbents are seeking re-election. Two other people interested in the LD17 Senate seat are Democrats Amy Fitch and former Senator Vince Leach. Wadsak defeated Leach in the LD17 Republican primary.
Legislative District 23
Democrats were expected to lead by nearly 17 points in the LD23, but won only one House seat in the district last year.
Incumbent Mariana Sandoval, Democrat, Goodyear. Michele Pena, Republican Yuma. Senator Brian Fernandez and Democrat Yuma are both seeking re-election.
Sandoval won 36.25% of the vote last year, while Peña won 33.94% of the vote, ahead of Democrat Jesús Lugo Jr.’s 29.81%.
LD23 Democratic Party Chair and San Luis City Councilman Matias Rosales has announced his intention to run for the LD23 House of Representatives seat. Republicans are trying to add district party chairman Michelle Alcer to the House ballot.
Republican Gary Garcia Snyder is seeking Fernandez’s seat.
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