Pollster Frank Luntz said Vice President Kamala Harris' historically effective campaign launch won't be enough to help her beat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Harris has led Trump nationally by 1.5 percentage points since the vice president began his campaign on July 21. According to Luntz told CNN News Central that despite Harris' “best start” in decades, the gap between her and Trump's approval ratings is so small that Harris would need to surge after the Democratic National Convention to have a clear path to victory. (Related: Poll shows more than three-fifths of Americans believe Kamala Harris covered up Biden's health problems)
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Frank Luntz says Harris has best start in decades, but 'it's still not enough to beat Trump' pic.twitter.com/e338xfbPw3
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 21, 2024
“She had the best launch of my career, I have to go back to a time I can’t even remember. [former Republican presidential nominee] “Wendell Willkie in 1940 took the country by storm, and it's still not enough… The difference between Trump and Harris is very slight, but that's why these two nights, tonight and tomorrow night, are so important,” Luntz said.
“She's trying to define herself not just by her character and personality traits, but by the issues that matter most to voters. We know where Donald Trump stands,” he continued. “And Trump does better on character traits and personality than on issues. She does better on character traits and personality than on issues. The next 48 hours will determine how much of a poll boost she gets and whether she leaves the convention with a meaningful advantage over the former president.”
Trump only Have He leads Harris by 0.2% in seven battleground states Boast He held a 4.3% lead over President Joe Biden during his reelection campaign, according to the RealClearPolling average.
Mark Penn, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton, said Tuesday that it was “not surprising” that Harris has “surged in the polls” because of the positive press she's receiving.
Democratic strategist James Carville told party members on Monday not to get “too excited” about Harris' chances of beating Trump because she has historically “performed above the polling average.”
“I'm glad people are feeling better. I'm glad people are excited. But anyone who looks at this situation with a sense of history or a sense of objectivity will realize there are a lot of pitfalls that we could face. We need to acknowledge that and stop being so bubbly all the time,” Carville said.
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