Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead over former President Trump in California heading into the final stages of the election, according to a new poll, but the margin is smaller than President Biden’s margin of victory in the state in 2020. smaller than

Rep. Adam B. Schiff also enjoys a significant advantage in his Senate race against Republican former Dodgers All-Star Steve Garvey.

Among California likely voters and those who have already cast their ballots, Ms. Harris held a 57% to 35% lead over Mr. Trump in California overall, compared to a month ago. That’s the same difference, little changed from August’s 59% to 34% difference. According to a study co-sponsored by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government with the Times.

About 5% of voters were undecided, and 3% supported another candidate.

Harris’ lead is significantly smaller than Biden’s 29-point margin of winning the state in 2020, 63.5% to 34.3%.

Part of that decline is due to declining support among Latino and Asian American voters, who make up more than a third of the state’s electorate, and especially among men in these groups. Poll director Mark DiCamillo said the trend could have real implications if it holds true in swing states in the West with similar Latino communities.

“We don’t see such strong support for the Democratic ticket among Latinos,” he says. “It affects Arizona and probably Nevada as well.”

According to the poll, Mr. Schiff was supported by 55% of respondents in the Senate race, while Mr. Garvey was supported by 34%. DiCamillo said he is not far from where he was when the campaign began, after a competitive primary.

“This isn’t really a campaign,” DiCamillo said of the race between Schiff and Garvey. “It’s very similar to what we got in late February.”

Schiff, a prominent Trump critic, exudes confidence and has spent much of his time campaigning for other Democrats in battleground states. His campaign declined to comment on the poll. Garvey’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Harris and Trump have dominated battleground states. Their camps also did not respond to requests for comment.

Anna Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, which is closely aligned with the Trump campaign, said in a statement to the Times that Trump was “not willing to support Kamala Harris and people from traditionally blue states supported by Democrats. “He will be a president for all Americans, including Americans.” I left it. ”

The latest poll was conducted in English and Spanish from October 22nd to 29th and surveyed 4,341 Californians who are likely to vote or who have already voted.

It’s a sharp turn in the broader presidential race, with surprisingly close races across seven battleground states, including Arizona and Nevada, as well as Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s coming at a moment like this.

Pollsters and political observers are closely monitoring trends in various voter groups, including by race, in an election where racism was prominent and a black woman topped a major party seat for the first time. . They also pay close attention to voting differences between men and women. This includes whether men are moving away from Harris and women are moving closer to her because of discomfort or anger over losing abortion rights.

DiCamillo said California cannot be directly compared to other parts of the country. He pointed out that there are many Latinos and many Democrats. California men in particular appear to vote differently than men in other parts of the country, he said.

Still, he said the Golden State’s latest poll provides a window into a widely diverse region of the country. And those trends, including declining support for Harris among Latinos and Asian American men, could provide insight into the race as a whole, he said.

Four years ago, California exit polls showed that about 3 in 4 Latino and Asian American voters in the state supported Biden. The latest polls show Harris’ approval rating is 57% among Latino voters and 56% among Asian American voters, but only about 50% among Latino and Asian American men. .

DiCamillo said California’s voting patterns among Latinos are quite similar to those in Arizona and Nevada, if not on the East Coast, and support for Harris in the western swing states. said that the drop in the number is not a good sign for her.

“If you survey Latinos here in California, you get pretty good results,” he said, noting that the majority of the nation’s Latino population lives in California.

DiCamillo also noted that Harris’ losses among certain California voters are offset by increased support among white voters, who support Harris at higher levels than Biden. He said.

According to the poll, white voters favored Harris over Trump 58% to 36%, compared with Biden’s victory margin over Trump 51% to 47%. The state’s white college-educated voters particularly favored Harris, favoring her over Trump 67% to 26%. Half of the state’s white voters without a college degree supported Mr. Trump, compared to 45% for Ms. Harris.

Black voters overwhelmingly supported Harris, but her approval rating was slightly lower than Biden’s. 77% of California black voters supported Harris, compared to 82% who supported Biden.

Opinion polls found Harris leading among Democratic voters in the state and Trump leading among Republican voters. Ms. Harris also holds an advantage in the state’s largest metropolitan areas, such as Los Angeles and the Bay Area, but Mr. Trump has significant support in the San Joaquin Valley. Orange County voters were largely divided.

Overall, the latest polls show that Ms. Harris won California, as did every Democratic presidential candidate since President George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988, with the state’s surprise DiCamillo said this confirms his assumption that he will achieve a major victory. Number of electoral votes 54the largest election prize in any state.

He also said the poll supports assumptions that California will continue to be represented by Democrats in the state Senate, with Schiff winning the seat long held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. said.