A $2.1 million grant from the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission helped Coconino County officials hire epidemiologists (scientists who study diseases) to develop a data-driven approach to stopping crime before it happens. used to take.

These scientists are hired by the Coconino County Department of Health and Human Services to investigate issues such as food insecurity, access to education, access to mental and physical health care, childcare options, and employment opportunities. Experts call it the social determinants of health. And measure that shortage along with the criminal case.

“The great thing about epidemiologists is their health and human focus on getting information and data.

Instead of looking at the spread of disease as an effect of food insecurity and housing shortages, they specifically look at the spread of crime as a result of the same disparities.

“Shoplifting, trespassing, disturbing the peace, indecent exposure, yes they are crimes, but in reality they are not only crimes in the community and in the lives of these individuals, but also in the community surrounding the social determinants of health. It’s a sign of a deeper problem,” Coconino County Attorney Bill Ring said.

Obscene exposure can lead to housing insecurity, theft can lead to hunger and addiction, and can lead to mental health problems.

Some data already exists at the state level, but much of the information is broad and covers Coconino County as a whole, Ring said.

The purpose of this investigation is to drill down to a detailed level, going from street to street, neighborhood to neighborhood, modeling the drivers of crime.

“I think of it as a heat map, or like a weather map of very heavy rain, with colors that go from red to green to yellow. We’re making maps,” said Ring.

This year’s $2.1 million in prize money will be used to create that map, the first part of the plan. Phase 1 is gathering actionable data. Phase 2 is transforming data into action.

“You can go to the (Flagstaff) city council or oversight board as a county attorney and say, ‘If you want to work on crime prevention, you need to do this,'” Ring said. We have empirical data that is valid and reliable data that shows it is needed in places.”

Ring and Musselman hope to use this data as a starting point for partnerships between social service providers and nonprofits working in housing, education, health and employment.

“We always want to focus on the prevention side. How can we plan and practice better? How can our partners meet community needs?” Musselman said. Said.

Ideally, with more information, you can cultivate resources where they are most needed and target solutions in specific geographic ways.

“Our law enforcement officers purchase diapers for the families of shoplifters, recognizing that shoplifters behave for a reason. If we can find a reasonable way, many people are investing in doing it.

The county attorney’s office has advocated at the state level for years to secure funding to start the project.

“It took three legislative sessions, two of which were interrupted by COVID. We missed, we resubmitted, we waved again, we missed; “We resubmitted, fielded down, made a third swing and hit.”

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey has approved a $10 million budget appropriation that will make diverted funds available to counties across the state through grants from the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission.

“We originally asked Congress for $20 million for all 15 county attorneys,” Ring said. “Congress gave us a ‘haircut’ to $10 million, but also excluded Maricopa and Pima counties from eligibility. That leaves us with 13 county attorneys and $10 million. Of the 13 counties, Coconino received 21% of the total, and the ACJC sees merit in what we’re proposing.”

After it was created, Coconino County still had to apply for the newly minted grant.

“We asked for $4.7 million because we have big goals. We wanted this to be about data and practice and program implementation. We will secure funding,” Musselman said.

Ring believes this funding is both important and practical, especially given the financial impact nonviolent crime has on the criminal justice system.

I believed in the rule of law. There was a sense of confirmation when we walked in. It really runs the criminal justice system,” Ring said.

He noted that the majority of crimes, especially those related to shoplifting, indecent exposure, disorderly conduct, and addiction, are often committed by repeat offenders. Before the 19 pandemic, the cost of incarcerating the same 140 people accounted for 25% of prison costs.

“People who commit these crimes can be arrested three, four, five, six times a month and are causing enormous damage to their communities. That raises the prosecutor’s question: Do you prosecute this crime?” he said. “There are multiple cities in the county, so we have city attorneys. The redundancy in this is actually a cost factor. “

Ring observed that many of the crimes committed by repeat offenders are intuitively tied to lack of resources.

“I filed a case like this when I was younger. We had a shoplifter and he made and ate hot dogs before he left the store… the owner called the police.” Police arrest you for shoplifting a $2.50 hot dog.In the 56th event, you stole a hot dog because you were hungry.It’s just basic hunger, basic human needs, It was an anxiety that needed gratification.”

A new study from the county primarily identifies correlations. Ring admits that correlation is not necessarily causation.

“I would rather expand the healthcare infrastructure and see what happens because we continue to do the same thing with criminal justice and prosecution. We continue in the same fashion.Should we expect a different outcome?The criminal justice system is a blunt instrument, not a sharp knife,” Ring said. “Why can’t we get ahead of crime and build better communities? Can building better communities actually reduce crime rates?”

If detailed data collection and modeling leads to a measurable reduction in crime, Coconino County could be on the brink of taking an important step forward for public safety and community health.

“I have worked in Coconino County for many years,” says Musselmann. The people of our criminal justice system are our family, our neighbors and our friends.