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Immigration could sway California congressional races, House control

On a recent cloudy Saturday, in the manicured backyard of a constituent's home, Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) spoke to a few dozen supporters about his efforts to add more sand to local beaches, reduce homelessness among veterans and prevent gun violence.

From the crowd, Peggy Aveni whispered to a friend, “What do you think about immigration?” As Levin began taking questions, she quickly raised her hand.

“I'm concerned about immigration,” Aveni said, “and I know Republicans have tried to block every issue. So is something going to happen before the election?”

With immigration at the forefront of the presidential election, the U.S.-Mexico border has become an increasingly important political issue in the House of Representatives elections, where the San Diego area is California's top destination for migrants and where the closely fought House races could help determine control of Congress.

Several California Republicans, including Rep. David Valadao of Hanford and Rep. Ken Calvert of Corona, are expected to face tough challenges in the November election, and their losses could help Democrats retake the House majority.

But some Democrats, including Levin, are trying to hold on to their seats.

“The issue that's impacting this district the most right now is the border,” said Matt Gunderson, a retired businessman and Levin's Republican opponent. “The San Diego County line is the epicenter of border crossings. Unless we secure the border, all other issues — public safety, public health, inflation — kind of get pushed aside.”

Immigration is becoming a higher priority for Levin, whose maternal grandparents immigrated to the United States from Mexico with parents who had work permits.

(Allen J. Schaven/Los Angeles Times)

Levin is an environmental lawyer who has served as a U.S. representative for the 49th Congressional District since 2019, representing much of coastal north San Diego County and parts of southern Orange County. His top priorities are fighting climate change, helping veterans and protecting democracy, but immigration has also become increasingly important to him.

At a campaign event in Encinitas, he told the crowd that the asylum system isn't working, making it easier for people to pay thousands of dollars to cartels and get step-by-step instructions on social media than to enter the country legally.

He reminded them that Republicans listened to former President Trump's demands and killed a bipartisan border security bill after months of negotiations. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, and conservative media outlets have used the politically divisive issue of immigration as a bludgeon to attack President Biden.

“We are in a real crisis,” Levin said. “This is not the Fox News version of the situation, but this is unacceptable. This is intolerable.”

Aveni, 70, an independent voter, supports Levin but felt the answer to the question was vague. She said she supports legal immigration.

“My friends, by and large, including my liberal friends, understand that this is a big problem for Southern California,” she said. “I want to see something done, and it's unfortunate that it's taken three years of the Biden administration to get there.”

In an interview after the shooting, Levin said his maternal grandparents immigrated from Mexico with their parents, who had work permits. Their experiences may not be relevant in modern times, he said.

Matt Gunderson and a man in a green uniform and brown cowboy hat look around next to a white government pickup truck near the border wall.

Matt Gunderson, the Republican challenging Levin, said that until the border is secured, “all other issues — public safety, public health, inflation — get pushed aside, so to speak.”

(Gunderson Campaign)

Levin said he wants to expand the legal path to citizenship, especially for so-called “Dreamers” and people who have lived in the U.S. for decades.

The failed border security deal marked the first time most Democrats supported an immigration bill that didn't include a legalization component, but he said it was negotiated in good faith and included funding for more border patrol agents, asylum judges and immigration judges.

“Yes, this is a political issue,” he said, “but this is truly a national security concern and should be treated as such. For me, the priority is where this sits on the continuum of various other things that voters may care about.”

At the White House three days after the meeting, Mr. Levin stood close to Mr. Biden and just behind Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas. The President issued a presidential decree Limiting asylum at the border. The order raises the legal threshold for asylum claims and bans entry if the number of people crossing the border other than at legal points of entry exceeds 2,500 per day on average.

Asked how he felt about Biden relying on the same provision of law that Trump used to ban immigration from several Muslim-majority countries, Levin said he expected Biden to use it “for a completely different purpose.” He said the historic numbers of immigrants over the past few years show change is needed.

But Levin's Republican opponent, Gunderson, said the president's order came too late. The former car dealership owner, who ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in 2022, has made housing affordability a focus of his campaign, primarily for the middle class.

Gunderson said the Biden administration has dismantled Trump administration border policies in order to “step back bit by bit” as the election approaches.

“The latest 'returning to God' mentality is not going to change what they've been doing for the last three and a half years,” he said.

Immigration is also a consideration in California's other races. In the 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steele of Seal Beach faces off against Democratic challenger Derek Tran, an Army veteran and Orange County business owner whose parents were political refugees from Vietnam.

Trang I recently encountered some heat. Asian American and other community leaders have spoken out in support of Steele, telling Punchbowl News that she “came to this country for economic gain” but is “trying to portray herself as a refugee.” Steele's family fled communist North Korea for Seoul, and she later moved to the US to attend college.

Meanwhile, Steele He criticized the Democratic Party Trump slammed the handling of the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border and said his constituents had entered the country legally.

And in the 41st District, Calvert, the longest-serving Republican in California's congressional delegation, will face Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor who helped prosecute the Jan. 6 rioters.

Congressional redistricting has divided the once Republican-held district in Riverside County. Both candidates advocate for a secure southern border, but Rollins also supports a path to citizenship for certain immigrants and says people who arrive at the border should be treated humanely.

Dave Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said immigration has been one of Biden's weakest issues in approval polls, but “lower-ranking Democrats have had some success establishing their independence from the White House on this issue.”

Wasserman said the issue has become a contentious one not only in border districts but also in suburbs farther north as recent migration puts a strain on local budgets. He pointed to Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), who has criticized the administration for being slow to act on the issue and blasted President Trump and Republicans for obstructing bipartisan compromise.

“In general, swing voters support strengthening the border and doing more than Biden and the Democrats have done over the past three years,” Wasserman said. “In 2016 the focus was on immigration and Trump's rhetoric about immigration that turned Hispanic voters against him, but now the focus is on the humanitarian crisis caused by record numbers of illegal border crossings.”