A small number of bettors are betting millions of dollars on former President Donald Trump’s election victory, greatly skewing what some consider a predictive indicator of the election.
The Wall Street Journal first reported that users “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro” and “Michie” accounted for $26 million in bets on Trump on the popular gambling site Polymarket. discovered Friday. the current, Polymarket They predict that Trump has a 60% chance of winning the 2024 election, while Vice President Kamala Harris has only a 39.8% chance of winning, a relatively large difference. flat Odds are expected around October.
Some people like billionaires and Trump Supporter Elon Musk He believes the betting market reflects the reality of the election more than the polls. Experts are divided on whether real money staking makes betting markets more accurate than voting markets. According to To Fortune Friday. (Related: Exclusive: RNC hires hundreds of thousands of volunteers and thousands of lawyers to ensure election integrity)
“Unlike public opinion polls, prediction markets can and do appear to be influenced by the interests of a few large companies. [on Polymarket]”Ryan Waite, vice president of public relations at think big, a public relations consulting firm, told Fortune. “The limitation here is that prediction markets often attract a specific type of participant. Those interested in betting may not reflect the broader population, and may not include the wealthy , overconfident individuals, or may be influenced by group psychology.”
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Center on October 15, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
According to Fortune magazine, a polymarket allows people to buy “stocks” based on what they think is the most likely outcome of an election, and the rise and fall is based on demand. Nicholas Creel, an associate professor of business law at the University and State University of Georgia, told Fortune that polymarkets attract certain types of people and exclude the average person.
“Polymarket in particular doesn’t have a particularly large or diverse group of people,” Creel said. “The main factor in this is that this exchange requires users to bet with cryptocurrencies, but the vast majority of the population has little familiarity with cryptocurrencies. , which tends to be especially popular with liberal types.
Some experts even believe that changing odds on betting platforms is part of a broader operation to boost President Trump’s favorability.
“I think there’s been a concerted effort to change the perception of this race,” Tom Bonnier, a senior advisor at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune. “In the final weeks of this campaign, a central debate of strength versus weakness has emerged: Donald Trump’s character, and therefore his support with voters, depends on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he loses, everything will fall apart.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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