Republicans won control of the House by promising to pass all 12 annual budget bills on time, before the House went into recess in August. Only five people passedThere is still a month until Congress returns from recess to begin the next fiscal year, but none of the other bills are likely to pass.
Budget fiasco, anyone?
The Senate, which supports the House of Representatives, Not Passed Congress has not yet debated the budget, making it even less likely that it will act after the recess. (Related article: Terence P. Jeffery: History books may not be so kind to Joe Biden)
So if you're a Republican in the House, why bother passing a budget bill if the Democrat-controlled Senate won't pass one? You can't bring anything to the table that isn't a bill. You can't negotiate with the White House if the other side doesn't have the money to come to the table.
A prophecy was made a few months ago that 2024 would be the year that the Continuing Resolution (CR) drama would begin again around October 1st.
If tradition continues, the first CR will go past the election and Thanksgiving. Democrats and Republicans will then look to strike a deal, but the easier thing to do would be to pass the CR until 2025. Let's bet on the easy path.
The hard-right regulars might have a problem at first, but eventually they'll get the joke. Pass the CR until 2025. They'll be told that Trump will be president again and the Republicans will control the House and Senate, which seems likely now, and the extremists will be enthralled that they can then cut spending and maybe even cut taxes.
By the way, The debt ceiling starts on January 1st.The pressure to act will be intense, especially if the usualEmergency measures” probably won’t last beyond March.
So, despite much grumbling, a short-term debt ceiling extension is likely. An extension until June 1 should be enough to blend future debt ceiling pressures with budget work.
So how does that work for the budget? No matter how well Republicans do in the November Senate elections, they won't have the 60 votes needed to end the fiasco, so they'll have to contend with Senate Democrats under the normal rules. Senate Democrats won't agree to spending cuts, so Republicans will have to rely on the budget resolution and reconciliation process to pass their agenda with just 50 votes.
And the bottom line is this: If House Republicans maintain their majority and exercise some restraint, if Senate Republicans maintain control and pass a budget resolution, if President Trump listens to his advisers, applies pressure only when necessary, and avoids the sweet temptation to throw a monkey wrench — if all of this happens, Republicans can make real progress in getting the train rolling toward responsible budgeting.
Honestly, it's a big train they're trying to run. According to the CBOFederal spending will approach $7 trillion in 2025. Just achieving a sustainable deficit would require cutting about $1 in every $5 of net non-interest spending. (Related article: US national debt reaches $35 trillion for the first time in history)
We're not going to do it all at once, but we have to take really big first steps. Simple reality: Missing the target means raising taxes. This isn't about politics. It's about simple math.
Oh, and they'll have to do all of this while raising the debt ceiling again, preferably until at least January 1, 2027.
Republicans have their first and greatest chance ever to cut spending, drastically reduce the deficit, and push forward with their agenda — and if they fail, they will bear the ultimate responsibility for the resulting disaster.
J.D. Foster, a former chief economist for the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, now lives a life of relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
As an independent, nonpartisan news service, all content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available free of charge to any legitimate news publisher with a large readership. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and affiliation with the DCNF. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
