To the great fanfare of the Democratic Party, Oprah Winfrey and Taylor Swift President Trump has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate, and while these two iconic figures have millions of fans, it remains to be seen whether their endorsement will bring about any meaningful change on November 5, 2024. However, one far more influential “influencer” could bring about big change: Pope Francis.
Earlier this month, Pope Francis becomes Pope (This is what the Pope does.) “Political morality generally says that not voting is a good, not a bad thing. You have to vote, and you have to choose the lesser evil.” (Related article: Tim Huelskamp: Catholic voter turnout could be a turning point for Trump's victory)
Pope Francis asked: “What is the lesser evil? That woman [Harris]or that guy [Trump]”I don't know. Each person has to think and act according to their own conscience,” he concluded.
The Pope called Harris' pro-abortion stance “murderAnd, almost equally cruelly, he likened former President Donald Trump's stance on illegal immigration to “abuse.”
Although the Pope did not endorse either candidate, his comments could influence the outcome of the US presidential election.
Considering the swing 42,922 votes Pope Francis' recent comments cannot be ignored, as the votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin tipped in favor of Trump in the 2020 presidential election, potentially leading to his reelection. If the Pope's comments result in even a slight change in voting behavior in the battleground states, it could lead to a victory for either Trump or Harris.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted earlier this year found that Trump's approval rating was White Evangelical Protestants His approval rating is lowest among Catholics (67% approve) and among agnostics (17% approve) and atheists (12% approve), but Trump's victory in November will depend on winning enough Catholic votes in key battleground states.
Digging deeper into the Pew Research Center survey, we find stark differences between Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic Protestants. investigationHispanic Protestants support the Republican Party 49-45%, while Hispanic Catholics support the Democrats 60-35%. This suggests that the Trump campaign has room to gain ground among Hispanic Catholics, regardless of the Pope's comments or influence. Moreover, if a representative contingent of Hispanic Catholics chooses not to vote in light of the Pope's comments, this would benefit Trump's reelection.
In 2020, Catholics numbered approximately twenty two% 42% of the adult population in the United States is Catholic. However, some states have a higher percentage of Catholics than others. For example, Rhode Island is 42% Catholic, while Mississippi is only 4%. Neither state is a swing state.
Proud twenty five% Wisconsin, which has a large Catholic population, has the largest Catholic population of the seven 2024 battleground states. Six other battleground states Pennsylvania: 24% Catholic, Arizona: 21%, Nevada: 21%, Michigan: 18%, Georgia: 9%, North Carolina: 9%.
How will Catholics react to the Pope's latest harsh comments?
Of U.S. adults, a total twenty two% “Committed white Catholics” who consider themselves Catholic make up 5% of U.S. adults. These potential voters are the most likely to be influenced by the Pope's words. “Lesser white Catholics” who profess their faith but do not regularly attend religious services make up 8% of the adult population, according to Gallup. “Hispanic Catholics” make up about 7% of the adult population.
According to Gallup, as of August 2020, committed white Catholics “disproportionately support Trump, with Gallup data showing his job approval rating at about 62%,” while non-believing white Catholics “have a job approval rating just above 50%.”
Hispanic Catholics tend to oppose Trump, according to Gallup as of August 2020 61% They oppose Trump, but as noted above, their views on the issues are closer to those of the Republican candidate than to those of Harris.
It's likely to be a close race between Harris and Trump, but the Catholic vote, and especially the Catholic Hispanic vote, could be a key deciding factor.
If Republicans want to retake the White House on November 5th, they should pray, in light of the Pope's recent comments, that Catholics will choose Donald J. Trump as their presidential candidate, because without the Catholic vote, Trump has no chance of winning.
James Carter served as Deputy Secretary of Labor and Deputy Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Jim Ellis is the founder of Ellis Insight election analysis services.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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