Are you looking for clues about who will win the presidential election? Some people study polls, others look to market forecasts or horoscopes. But there's another way: We've looked at past presidential elections, and if the past is any indication, former President Donald Trump has a slight lead.

In American history, 59 Presidential ElectionsThis is a sufficient dataset to allow for some pattern recognition.

So let's break down the patterns into three categories:

First, a presidential election in which the incumbent president cannot seek another term, which has been the situation since President Joe Biden took office. Announced He announced that he would not seek reelection Vice President Kamala Harris He will be the Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, Harris was elected president in 2020 but was not able to become president, so 2024 will be an “open seat” election. (Related: James Pinkerton: Decades after Reagan, America is still “the last great hope of mankind on earth”)

There have been 26 such elections (excluding the first one). 1789elected George Washington (These are elections to newly created offices, which means we’re actually only looking at 58 presidential elections.) In these elections to keep the vacant seat, the incumbent party won 12 times and lost 14 times.

>You can see the logic here: whenever an incumbent party switches candidates, there's the potential for a “bobble” that upsets voters. For example, this year Biden Pushed out Whether true or not, these palace intrigues could alienate voters who believe, for example, that Biden was duped.

So this subset of open seats is a slight plus for Trump: Previous candidates who challenged the incumbent party for an open seat have won 14 out of 26 times.

But for a more holistic perspective, let's look at the other two categories: As we'll see, Harris' status is subject to change.

The second category is presidential elections where the president is seeking reelection. Of the 27 elections, the record is 18. Win Nine Losses. Again, there is an underlying logic: if voters have chosen to pin their hopes on a president, they will naturally be at least a little hesitant to abandon those hopes at the next polls.

Typically, and in fact in two-thirds of cases, the incumbent's argument of “give us four more years to get the job done” is supported by voters.

The third category is the smallest: elections where there is a sitting president who was not elected president. This mainly occurs when the commander in chief dies in office and the vice president takes over and runs in the next election. Of the five elections in this category, the sitting president has won four times and lost only once. The reason is that the vice president, who is currently the president, must take over the job of the deceased president.

For example, in 1964, President Lyndon Johnson He was able to complete his term in office, in part because voters praised LBJ's pledge to honor the legacies of the martyrs. President John F. Kennedy.

So does that mean Harris would benefit if Biden were to step down and become president? Possibly. (Related: James Pinkerton: Trump's promise of American wealth fuelled by 'liquid gold')

As we all know, there has only ever been one presidential election in total in which a sitting president assumed the presidency through the resignation of his predecessor rather than through his death. Vice President Gerald FordHe succeeded President Richard Nixon in 1974 and ran for president in 1976. And lost.

So if Biden were to step down (and he has no intention of doing so), he would at least hand over the presidency to Harris. Nixon He passed the baton to Ford in a different way than the fallen JFK passed it to LBJ.

We all know Joe BidenHe's not John Kennedy. Sorry, it's Vice President Harris.

James P. Pinkerton was a former White House domestic policy advisor to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush and a former Fox News contributor.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

As an independent, nonpartisan news service, all content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available free of charge to any legitimate news publisher with a large readership. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and affiliation with the DCNF. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.