South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has nothing if not optimistic. As the Senate Republican Campaign Committee leads, Scott hopes to win a two-seat net in the future. He calls That’s his “stretch goal””.
How much stretch? Gold medal gymnast Simon Biles prepares before the competition, with his legs wide and his chin facing the mat. Biles can do that. Can Scott do it? (Related: JD Foster: How Republicans Can Break History and Get a Hand on the Home)
Traditional wisdom says that medium-term elections are tough for the president’s party. Without waves and war, the Presidential Party usually loses nine seats in the house, but the situation suggests that Republicans may still be in good fortune.
The same rationale shows that Republicans face a variety of consequences between losing two and winning two-seat nets. Scott’s stretch is plausible. In fact, the historic average is a push, not gaining or losing net profits.
Consider the macro political environment. Democrats are putting together the work of yeoman and exercising the rights of all politicians to take stupid actions. Advocating for wasted spending and accepting the law that replaces the word “mother” with “inseeder” will not fly with most Americans. (Related: Bob Erich: Trump plays chess, his enemy plays a checker)
But Republicans managed to save the Democrats. The big test is whether they emerge unharmed and will be minimally embarrassed from the budget fight by extending Trump’s 2017 TOTO tax cuts.
It appears that five seats are playing. The best shot for Republicans is Georgia. If incumbent Democrat John Ossoff ran in the typical bluish purple state, he would probably have won. But this is a reddish purple George, who Trump won 2.2 points.
Ossov could face the extremely popular governor Brian Kemp. In recent polls, Kemp has beaten Ossov by about five points.
There’s a Kemp with a term restriction at age 62 and it seems certainly a run to face a good outlook. If he doesn’t, the Republican bench might look thin and a sense of duty might be forced to run on him. Assuming Kemp is run, count this as a Republican pickup.
Republicans may also win seats in Michigan and Minnesota. Trump won with 1.4 points in Michigan, making sure the state is really purple. Republicans have two strong candidates for Tudor Dixon and Microjars.
The best Democrats’ choice is likely by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer refused to runHer eyesight in the White House in 2028 leads Biden transport secretary and carpet bagger “Pothole Pete” Battigie in the pretender parade. Count this as a lean Republican.
In contrast, Minnesota is blue, with Peggy Flanagan from Li from across the Democrats running. Republicans aim to set up Seal Adam Schwartze of the 21st US Marines and Navy.
The race should be interesting as Flanagan is an extreme leftist and Governor Tim Waltz Accorite is against the original Jarhead and seals. We are now generous and value this as a true throwback.
The Republicans also have two strict seats to protect. Maine’s Susan Collins is defending in the state where Harris won by almost seven points, but Collins fits Maine and Maine knows Collins. So far, notable Democrats have not stepped up to be chopped up by Collins. Republican hold.
The most at-risk Republican incumbent is North Carolina’s Tom Tillis. North Carolina is keeping an eye on Republicans, but not many, Tillis won re-election in 2020 with just 48.7% of the vote. Knowing that Tillis might face a challenge from the right, says former Republican Gov. Pat McCroley Trump is already engaged.
The race will depend on whether popular former Democratic governor Roy Cooper will jump in as expected. If so, this is a toss-up. If Cooper declines, Tillis could survive again. Throw this.
In short, the best thing is, as always, all the outcome depends on who does it. The quality of the candidates is critical, but Republicans could pick up one, and perhaps even Scott’s two stretches. Being optimistic pays off.
JD Foster is a former Chief Economist at the Office of Business and Budget, a former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He currently lives in relative freedom on the hills of Idaho.
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