MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki argued Monday that Iowa and New Hampshire could show surprising results this Tuesday not seen in previous election cycles.
According to the latest polls, this election could make history by handing historically red Iowa to Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican candidate Donald Trump There is a possibility that Republicans will take control of New Hampshire, which they have not won. According to reports, Harris holds a 3-point lead over the former president in Iowa, 47% to 44%. public opinion poll It was conducted by the Des Moines Register in late October.
“Look at Iowa. We haven’t talked about Iowa the entire campaign, the parties haven’t talked about Iowa, the candidates haven’t campaigned in Iowa,” Kornacki said. he said. “It’s been considered a safe, red Trump state, which he won by nearly 10 points in both 2016 and 2020, according to this Des Moines Register poll. By the way, this poll has an outstanding track record in Iowa. In fact, in 2020, late in that campaign, as I said, all the polls are saying something pretty big for Biden in 2020. Recall that it was this same poll taken on the Saturday before the 2020 election that showed President Trump still very strongly in blue-collar states. It was very strong with white voters, which is why the 2020 election was so close.”
“This poll captures a phenomenon in 2020 that other polls haven’t seen, and this time it captures it. In a state that Trump last won by just over 8 points, Harris won. We’re three points ahead,” Kornacki continued.
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Kornacki said the wide disparity between men and women in the Des Moines Register poll contributed to Harris’ lead over Trump. The Des Moines Register reports that abortion is being prioritized as a major issue among Iowa women, especially older and independent women, following the passage of a six-week ban in the state. (Related: MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki says polls showing Trump ahead are ‘hard to ignore’ and Harris’ positive image is declining)
Harris leads Iowa’s independent women by a 28-point margin, and holds a 63% to 28% lead among older women, according to the Des Moines Register. According to the final election, the candidates are facing a historically large gender disparity, with Trump holding a sizable 18-point lead among men, while Harris holds a 57% to 41 lead among women. % advantage. vote According to NBC News.
The poll surveyed 808 likely voters across Iowa from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, and had a margin of error of 3.4.
Trump led Harris 50.2% to 49.8% in New Hampshire, a state not won by a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, according to the New Hampshire Journal/Praecons Analytica. public opinion poll. The former president’s growing support in the state is likely related to “underground issues” such as allowing biological males to participate in women’s sports, which are influencing voters across the state. said radio personality Michael Graham to journalist Mark Halperin in an October 1 interview. 28 segments.
The former president narrowly lost New Hampshire in 2016 to former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, 46.8% to 46.5%. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020, 52.7% to 46.8%.
“[Trump’s] At least the campaign says it thinks it can put this kind of coalition back together. Again, it will be an early test on election night whether the Trump campaign’s claims are true and whether there will be more action outside of battleground states than we think. “Yes,” Kornacki continued.
According to an NBC News poll, Trump and Harris are deadlocked, 49% to 49%.
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