John Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent, said Friday on MSNBC that Republicans’ lead in early voting is causing anxiety among Democrats. spoke.
Former President Donald Trump currently leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points in Nevada. According to to the average of RealClearPolling. Ralston said on “MSNBC Report: 2024 Decisions” that Democrats’ hope of winning the state is limited by the fact that hundreds of thousands of votes have yet to be cast and that Republicans are currently in the lead, leading independents to vote for Harris. He said that it depends on the expectation that the government will mostly support it. (Related article: Kamala Harris once thought a border wall was ‘un-American’ but now supports it.)
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“Believe it or not, polls in Nevada are even less reliable than in past cycles. Demographics across the state have changed, and there are now more independent voters than in the state overall. “It was worse than before because there are more major parties,” Ralston said. “So what’s happening now is that as you’re showing right now, there’s a significant amount of early voting, probably two-thirds, 70% of all votes have already been cast. It’s possible that something unusual is going on this cycle, and instead of telling us how many early votes Democrats are hoarding, they’re hoarding a ton of early votes in person and by mail. There are Republicans.”
“The reason is that they woke up from 2020 and thought, ‘Oh, maybe I should vote early and take advantage of the mail.’ So they’re making this very big move to vote early this year.” We did a good job.” His statewide lead is just under 5%, which is a big concern for Democrats. Democrats’ only real hope is that they still have 400,000 or 500,000 votes left, but the independents I spoke to believe they will. “It’s powerful for Kamala Harris,” he added.
Republicans gained about 50,000 votes, which is about 5%. According to To Ralston’s blog post from Thursday evening.
“Democrats held on and by just Wednesday won Clark County for the first time,” Ralston wrote. “But will they be able to do well in the last two days of early voting, as they traditionally do, and will postal carriers, who run twice each day, pick up an overflow of mail? Will it be in the bag? The share of the indie vote continues to grow, which should be an advantage for Democrats, but will it be enough?
“Based on my intuition and data/history, it might be close to that,” he added. “But I tend to agree with Republican operative Jeremy Hughes, who says he’ll try to flip this battleship if the final Republican vote margin is well above 25,000 votes. “It’s a big problem for Democrats,” he said.
Trump also holds a slight lead over Harris in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. According to RealClearPolling average. Harris leads only in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Newsmax political analyst Mark Halperin said Friday that given Harris’ deficit in Sun Belt states, her only viable path to an Electoral College victory may be to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He said he could not.
“When she took over, for a while, [President] “There was talk that Joe Biden, maybe the Sun Belt strategy is a better strategy for her compared to Joe Biden,” Halperin said. “But even if we’re not betting 100% on winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, we’re pretty close to it at this point.”
“President Trump has more options to reach No. 270 as her chances of winning in four large Sun Belt states have receded,” he added.
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