A former Trump administration official told CNBC host Joe Kernen on Monday that many of the voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2004 election were Democrats.
Until President Joe Biden announced on July 21 that he would not seek re-election, Trump had gained support from both black and Hispanic voters, thanks in large part to the economy and immigration. Former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton said the blue-collar and middle classes are gaining support. Central Pennsylvania voters, who voted Democratic in the 2004 election, will be important to Trump. (Related: “The Million Dollar Problem”: CNN’s Harry Enten says it’s unclear who “low turnout” will help in the election)
“Let’s recognize what I think some of our guests have already said: Trump supporters today are different than Republicans 20 years ago,” said Clayton, co-host of “Squawk Box.” told Joe Kernen. “In fact, Trump supporters today were Democrats 20 years ago.”
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“A lot of it,” Kernen answered.
A poll of Pennsylvania voters from October 18 to November 3 shows Trump leading Harris in the head-to-head race by 0.3 percentage points. According to to the average of RealClearPolling. playing cards lead Alternatively, the past eight polls have shown a tie between independent candidate Cornel West, Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, and liberal Chase Oliver.
RealClearPolling’s average poll of Pennsylvania voters in 2020 gave Biden a 2.6% lead over Trump, but he won just 1.2% that year. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump by 2.1 percentage points in average polls, but lost to Trump by 0.7 percentage points in the Keystone State in 2016.
“And going back to Pennsylvania, if Trump can mobilize blue-collar jobs and middle-class people in the middle of the state, he will win,” Clayton said. “It’s very difficult and it’s new to the polling agencies, so it’s very difficult to do that. This is not a pattern that we’ve seen in the past.”
RealClearPolling shows Trump leading in four of the six other battleground states, with Harris holding a narrow lead. wisconsin and michigan. Trump topped polls in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, according to RealClearPolling. (Click here to watch the Daily Caller documentary “Fraud: The Death of the American Voter”)
Mr. Trump led Mr. Clinton by 6.5% in the final average and then won Wisconsin by 0.7%, while Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by 6.7% and secured a 0.7% victory in 2020. Trump led Biden by 5.1 percentage points in Michigan, but lost the state by a narrow margin. Clinton led Trump by 2.8% in 2020 and 3.6% in Michigan in 2016, only to lose. At the time of vote counting, the state had a 0.3 percentage point lead.
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