(The Center Square) – This year’s local elections in Maricopa County will be very close, with no clear winner, according to a poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights.
The poll was conducted Aug. 12-16 among 1,003 voters, 595 of whom were in Maricopa County, and has a margin of error of 4.02 percentage points.
In Maricopa County, candidates face off in elections for sheriff, county attorney, county assessor and county recorder, with polls showing them leading by small margins of around 1-4%.
According to the poll, Democratic candidate Tyler Kamp and Republican candidate Jerry Sheridan for Maricopa County Sheriff are tied at about 35% each, with Sheridan attracting a larger base of support from Democrats (76%) and Kamp from Republicans (69%), but they also have more support among independents (34%) than Sheridan (22%).
Republican candidate for county attorney, Rachel Mitchell, holds a 2-point lead over Democratic candidate Tamika Wooten, but Wooten appears to have stronger support among independents, holding a 10-point lead over Mitchell.
The race for County Assessor is also close, with Democratic candidate Gregory Freeman leading Republican candidate Eddie Cook by three points. Additionally, both candidates have similar support among their base, with each party receiving roughly 76% support for their candidate. However, Freeman holds a 15-point lead among independents, a key demographic, as roughly 40% of independents say they are unsure about the election.
The race for Maricopa County Recorder is the widest of the local races, but it is close with Democratic candidate Tim Stringham leading Republican candidate Justin Heap by just four points. Additionally, Stringham holds a 15-point lead among unaffiliated voters.
Independents and unsure voters will be a deciding factor in Maricopa County's elections.
“These races are incredibly close,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of NPI. “In each race, the front-runners are leading by low single-digit margins. With so many undecided voters and more than two months between the polls and Election Day, this poll doesn't allow us to predict a clear winner. But historical data may tell us more.”
Data for 2020 and 2022 shows that Democrats have an advantage in state and national elections, but Republicans are likely to win more local races.
“Arizona is changing rapidly, but the state's DNA remains Republican,” Noble said. “McCain Republicans, business moderates, the type of voters who may not like Trump but have been loyal to the GOP for years and trust competent local Republicans have split their votes in the past and may do so again this time. Only time will tell.”
In the state's U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holds a clear lead over Republican candidate Kali Lake, 12 points ahead of Republican candidate Kali Lake, but in the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has a less clear lead, holding a 3 point lead over former President Donald Trump.
“This narrow margin underscores Maricopa County's pivotal position in the upcoming election, where every vote counts,” the report states. “The county's congressional race also reflects the overall competition in this upcoming election. When asked which party they would support when voting for their representatives, Maricopa County voters are split 43% to 42%, with Democrats favored just one point.”
The only clear win on the Maricopa County ballot appears to be the renewal of Proposition 479, a half-cent sales tax that funds transportation projects in Maricopa County.
“The measure expires in 2025 and is up for renewal in November,” the NPI report states. “Prop. 479 has had the support of a majority of Maricopa County voters for over a year, but notably, opposition to renewal has not changed in the past year.”
The sales tax has been in place since 1985 and is expected to bring in $14.9 billion over the next 20 years, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments.
Arizonans have been in favor of Proposition 479 since July 2023, and for over a year now, 64% of voters have supported the proposition.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up about this proposition for a year. The campaign in support of this proposition has clearly been successful, and Proposition 479 is on track to win in November,” Noble said.
NPI research director David Byler noted that outside of Proposition 479, Maricopa County's election results were close.
“The margin of error is so wide that it's hard to pinpoint the deciding factor in races like assessor or sheriff,” Byler said. “With the exception of the Potash Lake race, all of those races are likely going to be very similar.”
