Sacramento – Newsom’s Redistricting Plan Faces Mixed Reactions
Gavin Newsom’s proposal to modify California’s Capitol district temporarily seems to be finding more supporters than detractors. However, the overall outlook remains a bit foggy, primarily because many voters still haven’t made up their minds, according to a recent poll.
What’s particularly interesting here is how Newsom’s standing with voters could play a crucial role in this high-stakes game of rezoning.
A survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Government Institute for the Los Angeles Times explored how registered voters feel about redistricting efforts backed by media outlets supporting California Democrats, which seem to counter the election map strategies used by President Trump and Texas Republicans.
Looking at the numbers, 46% of respondents view the changes as a positive step, while 36% disagree. If the temporary redistricting comes up for a vote in the statewide special election this November, slightly fewer than half—48%—indicated they would support it. Almost a third would vote against it, and about 20% remain undecided.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, mentioned, “That’s not bad news. If a voting action is taken, people might vote with a comfort level over 50%. Voters who are undecided or unsure often tend to lean towards the safer option.”
The sentiment shifts when we look at regular voters in statewide elections; around 34% opposed the proposal, while overall support for the redistricting surged to 55%.
DiCamillo emphasized the significance of this. “If I identify a specific subgroup to favor, that’s key,” he remarked.
As political stakes rise, these boundaries may influence the broader landscape, where Republicans currently hold a slender majority. Newsom and Democratic leaders assert that California needs to adapt to the partisan mapping tactics employed by Texas. Texas’s plan, after all, created five Republican-leaning seats, solidifying their hold in the House. Meanwhile, California’s initiatives seem designed, at least temporarily, to offset those advantages. New maps are slated for parliamentary elections in 2026, 2028, and 2030.
On the flip side, detractors argue this plan undermines an independent constituency change committee that voters had previously endorsed, raising concerns about concentrating power without due consideration.
Partisan divides are evident; roughly 70% of Democratic voters show support for this redistricting, whereas a sizable majority of Republicans, around 72%, outright reject it.
Former President Obama expressed support for the effort, while moderate Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger has voiced his opposition. Recently, California Republicans have pushed back, labeling the initiative as a partisan maneuver. They’ve even filed an emergency petition to the state Supreme Court, claiming that Democrats are breaching the California Constitution by rushing the proposal. Nonetheless, the High Court dismissed the legal challenge on Wednesday.
The timeline for this initiative has been swift. Newly revised maps were introduced just last week, and by Monday, lawmakers had presented the law for voter consideration. These bills were approved on Thursday, positioning them for the upcoming November ballot.
Newsom, now synonymous with California’s redistricting efforts, has seen a resurgence in his approval ratings as he faces off against Trump and Republican leaders. His office recently launched a social media campaign mimicking Trump’s distinctive style, possibly to engage a broader audience.
Currently, more voters approve of Newsom’s performance—51% to 43% disapprove—marking a notable turnaround since April. The poll, which covered 4,950 registered voters in English and Spanish, was conducted from August 11 to 17.
Interestingly, 59% of respondents back Newsom’s confrontational stance towards Trump, while 29% wish for a more collaborative approach. There’s notably strong support among younger voters; 71% of those aged 18 to 29 are in favor of him taking a stand.
Political expert Matt Lesenyie pointed out that having media backing the district change campaign could be perceived as wise. Newsom’s national profile has indeed risen due, in part, to his confrontational approach, which has stirred both intrigue and ire among commentators on the right.
“He’s struck while the iron’s hot,” Lesenyie added.
Some, like political scientist Eric Sickler, who voted for the measure, question whether Californians should reclaim control of their districts after voters initially sought to establish an independent process.
“There’s rampant distrust of politicians,” Sickler commented. “Yet, it’s evident that voters are conflicted about his actions, which seems to suggest that Newsom has won this round—at least for now.”
To secure support in November, engaging undecided voters will be critical. Almost 30% of Latino, Black, and Asian voters haven’t yet decided how they feel about the redistricting. There’s also a notable hesitation among women, with 25% uncertain compared to only 14% of men. Young voters, specifically those aged 18-29, show considerable indecision; a third of them are unsure, as opposed to just 11% of those over 65.
Even within the Democratic ranks, skepticism abounds. A fifth of those surveyed identified as undecided, and a quarter of self-identified independents expressed uncertainty.
“There are definitely many votes still up for grabs,” Sickler remarked. “I wouldn’t be shocked if the margins tighten as we approach November, but this does provide a solid starting point for the proposition.”
