The Republican House bill to ban transgender athletes from women’s sports is a step in the right direction, but it’s still a toothless measure doomed to failure.

It seems we have come out on the other side of awakening. The cultural moment has passed when Republicans like Gov. Kristi Noem could easily be bullied into vetoing popular transgender legislation for fear of mob retaliation. That bodes well for this culture. Republicans now feel safe enough to speak their minds, and more importantly, what their constituents think, on the issues of our time.

But the reckless attempt to issue a national ban on transgender athletes in women’s and girls’ sports in federally funded schools and educational institutions feels completely powerless and hopelessly naive. But courageous House Republicans did just that, voting 218-206 in favor of the bill on Tuesday. In a grand sign of the times, even 20 Democrats voted yes. This bill is scheduled to be introduced in the Senate next week, and I hope it doesn’t pass there.

It is tempting to think of this as sticking to the ribs, fighting fire with fire, and countering their model of prohibition with our own prohibition. It may feel good, but it does nothing to swing the gender pendulum back to normal. All I can say to Republicans who want to implement this bill is, “Good luck.”

This will necessarily be enforced by state and local authorities. Will the National Guard be federalized and deployed like JFK ensured racial desegregation in Alabama in the 1960s? don’t make me laugh Universities and governing bodies, all captured by woke stakeholders and true believers, will simply not comply. In the process, they will paint themselves as hopeless victims of a backward totalitarian regime that wants nothing more than to see them. ”massacred” Activist groups, legal advocates, and NGOs will flood into the zone, drawing funds, attention, and new reserves of energy to the fading cause. As a result, traditional journalists will have everything they need to weave a new morality tale for the public.

Far from being a substantive victory for the right, this will inevitably be a propaganda victory for the left. Today, the public empathizes with the women and girls who are being unfairly beaten, sometimes literally, by the men they are forced to compete with. But public sympathy is expected to tilt in another direction after months of national attention for selected sob stories of hard-working transgender people. From there, it’s only a matter of time before the votes continue.

Republicans still don’t understand how state power works. Democratic bans work because they are enforced through carrots and sticks. Transgenderism became an institutional norm because a series of newly imposed bureaucratic, professional, and social norms and regulations made rejection of transgenderism culturally harmful. be. Criticism of the transgender movement was effectively prohibited without any legislation being enacted. Republicans should take note.

In fact, any sensible Republican should know all this. This is a messaging bill, and messaging bills are always stupid in terms of practice. This is designed to show the right mindset and show that they are “doing something” rather than actually doing something. But that doesn’t mean they’re willing to do what needs to be done either. (Related: Do you think TikTok is bad? Check out the latest Chinese app that’s driving American kids wild)

But the solution to the problem of masculinity in women’s sports will only come by making transgenderism as politically and culturally toxic as the movement’s critique was years ago. Rather than an outright ban, this would require placing significant pressure on the sport’s governing body, possibly investigating its leadership, or issuing indirect regulations that would make it difficult to operate in its current state. It is also necessary to Target advocacy groups and NGOs that support and fund the transgender epidemic. Investigate their funding, crack down on donors, and delegitimize them in public. Don’t make “victims” into martyrs by pointing to national or local officials who get in the way.

This would be much more advanced than previous amateur bans. As we’ve seen over the past few years, a little legal trouble can go a long way.