While most Americans are focused on the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both major political parties are focused on the critical House and Senate races to decide who will control the legislative branch of government. I am doing it.
There will be some tight down-ballot races in 2024, but these 12 are the ones to keep an eye on on Election Day.
The Senate is currently under Democratic control, but polls show Republicans could take control if they win seats in Montana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. 538 Election Prediction Model show As of this writing, Republicans won the Senate majority in 916 out of 1,000 election simulations. Republicans only need to win three of the five seats to flip the majority.
Republicans currently have an 84% chance of regaining the Senate majority. pic.twitter.com/0lSU4H0btC
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 24, 2024
Montana:
Montana looks like it will be the easiest election for Republicans. Three-term Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester is running against a formidable opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy. Montana is a deep red state, and most polls show Sheehy has an edge over Tester. Democrats and their friends in the corporate media have gone to great lengths to help Tester cross the line. polling show However, Sheehy leads Tester by four points, and his numbers are outside the Emerson College poll’s margin of error.
The latest polls show Tim Sheehy leading incumbent Sen. Jon Tester. If we win this race, Republicans will control the majority in the US Senate. Let’s go to Montana!
pic.twitter.com/xhgOctUQ93— Gomi Chad Prather (@WatchChad) September 14, 2024
West Virginia:
Democratic candidate Glenn Elliott, a former two-time mayor, and Republican West Virginia Governor Jim Justice are vying for the state’s open Senate seat. The Justice faction is popular in the state and has an advantage in winning seats. 538 Election Simulator Found Justice with a 99% win rate. Latest vote According to an August poll, support for the Justice faction was 62%, compared to just 28% for Elliott.
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania would be an even tougher election for Republicans, and a loss for Democrats would likely be the biggest upset. Incumbent Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey and Republican candidate Dave McCormick are vying for the seat. 538 Despite being an election simulator showing Mr. Casey has defeated Mr. McCormick 71 times out of 100, and Mr. Casey’s camp appears to be concerned about his ability to win. Mr. Casey has distanced himself from the Biden-Harris administration in recent weeks by running ads agreeing with President Trump’s policies on the economy and immigration. McCormick had a slight lead in October polls, but did well in November polls. show Casey heads into voting day with just a two-point lead over McCormick.
🚨 BREAKING NEWS: According to a new poll from Atlas Intel. @DaveMcCormick For the first time, he came in first in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
🔴Dave McCormick 48.3% (+1.2)
🔵Bob Casey 47.1%(In 2020, the most accurate polling agency was Atlas Intel) pic.twitter.com/YB6ZsqOMxI
— Kyle Martinsen (@KyleMartinsen_) October 19, 2024
Wisconsin:
recent votes show Only two points separate incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde for Wisconsin’s Senate seat. The race will likely hinge on whether Trump can win Wisconsin and bring in down-ballot races like Hovde. According to Charles Franklin, director of polling at Marquette Law School. (Luke: The Harris world should continue to panic. She is struggling in just the key electoral metrics)
“If Trump wins by a few percentage points, it will be a big challenge for Baldwin,” Franklin said. “I think it’s very difficult to know which way the Senate race will go if the difference is one percentage point, as it has been in the last two presidential elections.”
Ohio:
According to the latest polls, the race for the Ohio Senate is a close race between Republican candidate Bernie Moreno and Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown. Moreno hold 0.5 point lead over Brown. Still, 538’s election simulator has Brown hit Moreno is 56 out of 100. Mr. Trump is expected to win Ohio, which could push Mr. Moreno into a corner.
🚨BREAKING: Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno is leading in the polls in the Senate. pic.twitter.com/BchL2oTFVG
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, and Democrats need just four more seats to take control. 538 Voting Simulator Gives Republican Advantage It gave Republicans a 58% chance of winning and retaining control of the House. win. There are some close races in the House, but Democrats’ best chance to take back the chamber is yet to come. In seven close seats: California, New York, Washington (state), Michigan and Alaska.
California:
California is a deep blue state where Republicans hold 12 seats, and incumbent parties are struggling to hold onto seats. Trump’s success in getting voters to the polls in California’s red areas will be critical to these candidates’ ability to win reelection. Democrats hope to capture California’s 22nd, 27th, and 45th Congressional Districts, where the margins between the two parties are very thin.
partisan public opinion poll show Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steele and her challenger, Democrat Derek Tran, won California’s 45th Congressional District within the margin of error. Democrats expect Mr. Tran to win the seat, but 538’s election simulator shows Mr. Steele next in line to win the seat. slight advantage To win the race. (Democratic Party working overtime to make election conspiracy a reality)
In California’s 22nd District, Republican Representative David Valadao is running against Democratic candidate Rudy Salas. Valadao may receive support from Trump in a no vote, but it is unlikely that Valadao will receive campaign support from the former president, who voted in favor of impeachment. Voting in October show Valadao has a 2 point lead over Salas, 538 election simulators are equipped with Valadao. favorable To win.
New poll in battleground state California!!
🔵 George Whiteside — 44%
🔴 Mike Garcia* — 43%🔵Derek Tran — 45%
🔴 Michelle Steele* — 43%🔵 Rudy Salas — 43%
🔴 David Valadao* — 39% https://t.co/jSyenrL1rH— Anthony Adragna (@AnthonyAdragna) September 24, 2024
Republican incumbent Mike Garcia is running against Democrat George Whiteside in California’s 27th Congressional District. Garcia first won the seat in 2020 after Democratic Rep. Katie Hill resigned. He defeated Democrat Christy Smith in a special election in March 2020, in the general election in November 2020, and again in 2022. Garcia is no longer running against Smith, but against Whiteside, a political newcomer. September poll by University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Urban Politics and Policy Center/University of California Pomona give Whiteside won with a two-point advantage over Garcia.
new york:
The rematch between incumbent Republican New York state Rep. Mark Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley is the most expensive House race of this election cycle. spectrum news reported Candidates reportedly spent more than $45 million to win the seat. October voting show Riley leads Molinaro and 538 election simulators by 4 points show Molinaro lost 54 of 100 times to Riley.
NY19 US poll
house
🟦Riley 46%
🟥Molinaro 42%president
Harris 48%
Trump 47%https://t.co/IUPGwW3fbO— Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 22, 2024
Washington:
A rematch between incumbent Democratic Washington Rep. Maria Grusenkamp Perez and Republican challenger Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District puts Democrats at a disadvantage. They cannot afford to lose their seats in the march to control the House. Still, Kent is the favorite to win this race. Kent wins in Democratic-leaning polls tied Grusenkamp Perez and 538 election simulators show Kent has a 55% chance of winning the race. If Republicans intend to pick up seats to expand their majority, expect a fight between Kent and Grusenkamp Perez. appearance Promising.
A hot race — Washington’s 3rd District — was just attacked by a ballot bomber.
Joe Kent (R) is tied in polls with Rep. Perez (D). Voter turnout for both is currently 46%.
WA D3 was a competitive race, with Perez winning in 2022 in an upset. It was the Republican Party… https://t.co/WXA73YRtEV
— Katie Daviscourt 📸 (@KatieDaviscourt) November 3, 2024
Alaska:
Alaska is not a state that most people think of when they talk about competitive races, but their campaigns, political committees and other organizations that support them. spent $40 million for the race between incumbent Democratic Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Nick Begich. Poll shows Begic 4 points ahead of Peltola, 538 election simulators give The probability of him winning is 60%. (Luke: Recent victories in Republican battleground states are the last thing Democrats need right now)
Neither party has a majority in either chamber, giving each party a chance to flip the government. But Republicans have a clear chance of flipping key Senate races, potentially not only maintaining their current House majority but expanding it.
