Much has been released about the 2024 election polls, but the only data that really matters in the presidential race is already looking good for Republicans.

When the Daily Caller asked attendees at Ms. Harris’s rally what they thought about the 2024 election, many said they were worried that Ms. Harris would lose to Mr. Trump.

“Honestly, I’m very nervous. I think Trump might win. I don’t know,” one female student from Maryland told the Daily Caller, as her friend nodded in agreement.

NEW: Harris’ closing argument drew cheers. But even at the energetic and packed rally, some of her supporters expressed anxiety about what will happen after Nov. 5.

“I think Trump might win.”

only @DailyCaller: https://t.co/bHmYd2478s

— Reagan Reese (@reaganreese_) October 30, 2024

Anything can happen between now and November 5th. There is no way to accurately predict who will win a presidential election. But the early voting results are a positive for Republicans and will likely frighten Vice President Kamala Harris and her allies.

While Democrats have traditionally led in early voting, 2024 early voting data in key states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan shows how far Republicans are in these states. It shows whether there are any.

In 2020, Democrats held a 1.1 million vote lead in Pennsylvania, creating a huge firewall that former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates had to overcome. Republicans will significantly narrow that lead in 2024. So far, 57% of Democrats have voted in 2024, casting about 894,400 votes, according to the latest early voting results. According to Go to L2 data mapping. Nearly 33% of Republicans voted, or 515,900 votes. (Democratic Party working overtime to make election conspiracy a reality)

PA ballots returned:

Democratic Party: 947,214 (56.1%) +29,318 (from 10.31)
Republican: 553,158 (32.8%) +23,072 (from 10.31)
Indies: 188,179(10.9%) +10,455 (from 10.31)

Changes from the end of 2022:
Republican: +289,508
Democratic Party: +89,934

Changes from the end of 2020:
Republican: -65,080
Democratic Party: -771,512 https://t.co/5BM9ydBA0y pic.twitter.com/IuZxdf6F1V

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 1, 2024

This leaves Democrats with just a 378,500 vote lead over Republicans, a decrease in their lead of 621,500 votes compared to 2020. Harris will not have the million-vote firewall that Biden had in place in 2020 by Election Day.

There are two reasons why the number of Democrats in Pennsylvania is declining. Not only did Democrats underperform in Philadelphia compared to 2020, but Republicans also managed to move five counties back to red in voter registration, including Bucks and Luzerne counties.

The Republican Party is currently vote In Arizona, Democrats had a 118,200 vote lead. In 2024, 42% of Republicans cast 672,100 votes, while only 35% of Democrats cast 553,900 votes. Arizona early voting data from 2020 shows a very close race between Democrats and Republicans. In 2020, the Democratic Party cast A total of 923,805 votes were cast, with Republicans casting 914,172. At the same time four years ago, voters gave Democrats a 9,633-vote lead. Harris is on the upswing compared to Biden, who defeated Trump in Arizona, as Republicans held a significant lead over Democrats four years ago. for free The number of votes in 2020 was 10,457.

🚨 JUST IN: Arizona Republicans lead by 163,000 votes in early voting

🔴Representatives: 847,720 [+163,345]
🔵 DEM: 684,375
🟡 OTH: 533,337

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024

Democrats are also losing early voting races in Nevada. republican party possession In the state, Democrats had a 12,800-vote lead, with 241,800 votes compared to 229,000 for Democrats. Compared to 2020, the Democratic Party 47,000 votes lead Early voting in progress. This amounts to a change of 53,000 Republican votes over four years.

Voters in North Carolina tend to vote without waiting until Election Day. In 2020, the Democratic Party held He entered voting day with a 260,112 vote lead over Republicans. In 2024, Republicans will outnumber Democrats by 100,000 votes. Harris wanted to turn North Carolina blue in 2024, even though she knew Trump won the state in 2016. 2020. Early voting results show he is likely to win North Carolina again. (Luke: Recent victories in Republican battleground states are the last thing Democrats need right now)

North Carolina 🌄
Postal: 191,078 votes
Early in-person voting: 3,431,737 votes

Voting by registering with a political party:
🔴Republican 34.0% | 1,230,524 votes
⚪️Other 33.4% | 1,208,372 votes
🔵Democratic Party 32.7% | 1,183,919 votes pic.twitter.com/3XV0o1h5jc

— Vote Hub (@VoteHubUS) November 1, 2024

Georgia, a key swing state, set a record for early voting in 2024 with turnout reaching 50% on Thursday. Analyzing the state’s early voting record in 2020 is difficult because party-specific data is difficult to find. But Biden narrowly won Georgia. 11,779 votes. Early voter data for 2024 shows Democrats have an advantage on Election Day, but that likely won’t last long.

Meanwhile, women voters in Georgia crowding Early voting is a positive for Harris, as are voters over 65, who tend to vote Republican. Democrats currently have a 100,000 vote lead in early voting. Still, because Republicans have more registered voters than Democrats in Georgia, Republicans tend to win the majority of Election Day votes, allowing Trump to close the gap.

Georgia sets record as early voting ends today ahead of Election Day – @CELLIOTTTV above @fox32news Numbers from Powder Springs pic.twitter.com/cIMdHRnAMI

— Fox News MMR (@FoxNewsMMR) November 1, 2024

Michigan is likely to be a close battleground state between Trump and Harris. But it’s not a surefire victory for Harris. Although Democrats have more registered voters in the state, early voting results show only about a 200,000-vote lead over Republicans. In 2020, Democrats cast 1.3 million votes, compared to 1.1 million for Republicans.

Unlike in 2020, Harris does not enjoy a favorable vote margin as Republicans tend to outperform Democrats in several battleground states heading into Election Day. Polls can fluctuate, but the only data that can accurately paint a picture of whether Harris or Trump will win is the actual vote tally. And now Harris is struggling in the states she needs to win on Nov. 5.