In Virginia politics, there are a few “truths” that newcomers quickly come to understand. It’s more like a federation than a strict nation. For instance, don’t forget about the Eastern Shore. Interestingly, “Take Me Home, Country Roads” is about western Virginia, not West Virginia. Moreover, the Attorney General’s office typically skews Republican, even if the state seems to support Democrats more broadly.
While this might sound like folklore, it’s based on real trends. Since 2001, there have been six statewide elections for governor and attorney general in Virginia. Out of those, Republicans have only secured two gubernatorial wins, although the attorney general’s position has seen four victories for their side. It almost became five in 2013, but a Republican candidate lost by fewer than 1,000 votes.
In the eyes of Virginia voters, the attorney general is seen as the state’s leading law enforcement figure. This role involves upholding the Constitution and advocating for victims of crime. The current Attorney General, Republican Jason Miyares, focused heavily on public safety during his 2021 campaign, which contributed to his success.
A national NBC News poll from 1993 reveals that Republicans have consistently held an edge concerning crime issues. In 2023, that gap was the largest, with Republicans leading Democrats by 26 points. So, even if Virginia trends blue at the gubernatorial level, Republicans often tout their stance on crime and safety to win AG offices.
Political analysts have long studied ticket splitting, often interpreting it as a “check and balance” behavior. Voters might choose one party for a top office while opting for the opposing party in another. This means electing a Democratic governor while supporting a Republican for attorney general. Such patterns have been notable in federal elections, especially in recent years. Notably, in last November’s elections, President Trump won in states like Arizona and Michigan, yet the Democratic Senate candidates prevailed there too.
This inclination for balance could explain why Republicans remain viable contenders for the Virginia Attorney General position. With the GOP’s enduring trust on crime issues, candidates like Miyares find themselves with potential paths to success in a state that trends slightly toward the Democrats.
Despite facing challenges in a state leaning toward blue, Miyares is in a decent position, partly due to his vigorous campaigning. A recent Roanoke College poll placed him just three points behind his opponent, while Winsome Sears, the Republican candidate for governor, lagged by seven. Miyares has also amassed a campaign fund of $8 million, helping to clarify the political distinctions this year.
These contrasts become evident when compared to his opponent. Former House member Jay Jones has a track record of promoting criminal justice reforms, which have raised public safety concerns. He has supported policies like cashless bail and early release for certain violent offenders, even those convicted of serious crimes. He also voted against mandatory minimum sentences for sexual abusers and backed removing requirements for reporting incidents of sexual misconduct in schools.
In contrast, Jason Miyares has adopted a different approach, concentrating on crime prevention and justice for victims, consistent with his campaign promises. He has initiated efforts to combat the opioid crisis, securing over $1 billion in settlements from problematic healthcare entities. Additionally, he is challenging local prosecutors who fail to enforce laws and is suing tech companies that exploit children through social media.
Traditionally, the role of Attorney General in Virginia has focused on law enforcement rather than ideological battles. It’s about safeguarding families and advocating for victims. In the upcoming November elections, voters will determine if this remains the case. Miyares brands himself as the “people’s guardian,” while Jones emphasizes criminal justice reform. Ultimately, it’s up to Virginia voters to decide if they still value balance in Richmond.
