Will Hispanic and younger voters help former President Donald Trump secure a second term in the White House? A new poll strongly suggests the answer is yes.

But first, a little background on the larger macro shifts in voter and party affiliation. Looking at the bigger picture, populist and nationalist revolts continue to reshape American politics, systemically and perhaps generationally. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into the party of working people, and is capturing entire demographic groups once thought of as the political roots of the Democratic Party.

for example, vote According to a study by the American Enterprise Institute, by 2020, for the first time, white American households with union members were equally likely to support Republicans and Democrats. In fact, even as late as 2000, such households still favored Democrats by 26 percentage points (43% to 17%).

But not coincidentally, in 2001, a party in Washington fully welcomed China into the World Trade Organization on terms that were extremely generous to the Beijing regime and utterly disastrous for American workers, especially blue-collar workers. Since then, working-class voters have gravitated toward the anti-establishment, populist wing of the Republican Party. (Related article: Steve Cortez: Trump prepares to take over the South)

Then, beginning with the Tea Party movement and crystallizing in Trump's 2016 campaign, this forgotten group of Americans rallied fiercely to the America First cause. Now, in the 2024 election season, as detailed in the latest polls in key battleground states, the Trump coalition has broadened even further, attracting groups previously taken for granted by Democrats.

In Arizona in particular, a major political realignment among Hispanics and young Americans seems likely to not only put Trump back in office but also shape a lasting anti-establishment politics. June Survey For the greatness of America, carried out North Star Opinion Research, Trump had a commanding double-digit +10% lead in a field filled with multiple candidates. Grand Canyon State. Topline poll test breakdown: Trump 42%, Biden 32%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13%.

But the numbers beneath this striking Trump headline are perhaps even more revealing, and even more important in November and beyond. First, in this state with a large Hispanic population: Trump currently leads Biden among Latino votersIt is difficult to overstate how significant this change will be for national politics. After all, Hispanics are now overwhelmingly Largest ethnic minority in America… and it continues to grow.

If Democrats were to lose Hispanics permanently, which seems imminent, Republicans would have huge advantages, especially in Arizona and Nevada, as well as in key states. Georgia.

What issues are driving Hispanics toward the populist right?

First, the media's portrayal of U.S. Hispanic citizens as being soft on immigrants is a myth. For example, just a few weeks ago, a CBS News/YouGov poll found that: Majorities of Hispanics Support Mass Deportation of All Illegal ImmigrantsOf course, Arizona's Hispanic residents are the ones most directly affected by Biden's open border policies. I explored the southern Arizona border in a recent documentary..

But beyond the border, Hispanics are also reeling from Biden's economic hardships: runaway inflation has hit people with modest incomes much harder, including most Hispanic households. (Related article: Steve Cortez: Poll reveals three key issues Trump should grill Biden on in debate)

The same issue is driving the second key group in Trump's coalition: young American voters. In Arizona, Among those aged 18-34, Trump has a 4% lead over Biden in a multi-candidate demographic.That figure spells political death for the Democratic Party. Young people generally measure their prosperity by income, not assets.

In other words, while successful older Americans have enjoyed rising asset prices, especially in stocks and real estate, Ambitious young people suffer as inflation-adjusted wages fall sharply Under Biden, this next generation is seeing their standard of living go down no matter how hard they work, and they know it. And they're blaming Biden. For example, A whopping 75% They say Biden hasn't done enough to address the inflation problem.

As a result, the Democratic Party's failure to engage working Americans creates a huge political opportunity. Moreover, the new and powerful populist energy of the America First movement attracts disaffected groups such as Hispanics and young people. These demographics form key pillars of an emerging Trump coalition. This new political alignment will return Trump to the presidency and transform American politics for decades to come.

Steve Cortez is a former senior adviser to President Trump, a former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and the president of the Federation of American Labor, a right-wing populist group that supports workers.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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