MSNBC data reporter Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that Vice President Kamala Harris is not replicating President Joe Biden's 2020 “gender gap” advantage in the 2024 election.
Former President Donald Trump is trailing Harris by 1.5 percentage points in national head-to-head races. According to Compared to the average of RealClearPolling polls from July 31 to August 18, rest The same is true when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West are included in the survey. Kornacki said Trump's lead among men combined with Harris' lead among women is “medium.” (Related story: 'Not that strong': CNN data expert says Harris is closing gap with Trump's primary supporters)
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Steve Kornacki says Kamala Harris doesn't beat Trump on 'gender gap' pic.twitter.com/SpyiNTySe8
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 20, 2024
“The gender gap has been a staple issue in American politics since the 1980 election. So with that in mind, here's a set of numbers that you see, looking specifically at men, and as you can see, in the 2020 election, Donald Trump, on average across all the post-election surveys, led Joe Biden with the 2020 male vote by five points,” Kornacki told MSNBC host Chris Jansing. “A few months before Joe Biden withdrew, when he was still the Democratic nominee, Trump had a 12-point lead over Biden among men, but now, a few months after Kamala Harris took office and replaced Biden, we see that on average, Trump is leading the male vote by seven points. So from Trump plus 12 points to Trump plus seven points, in the months since Harris became the candidate, the lead among Democrats among men has narrowed by five points, but Trump still has a seven-point lead.”
“Now, if we look at women, Biden still won with women over Trump by 13 points in 2020. Biden was winning with women right before he withdrew, but that gap had narrowed to five points,” Kornacki continued. “Now, with Harris in the race, we can see that the Democratic gap has narrowed. Harris has a nine-point lead with women. Trump has an average of seven points with men, and Harris has a nine-point lead with women. Now the gender gap is 16 points. That's big, but that's normal. In the 2020 election, the average was 23 points, no, 18 points. So it's very similar to 2020. It's big, but it's not necessarily new.”
Biden Approved Harris was nominated as the Democratic candidate to succeed him on July 21 after announcing she would not seek reelection. (Related story: 'We don't know that': MSNBC data expert gives Democrats harsh reality after Walz election)
At the time Biden gave up on reelection, Trump was leading Biden by 3.1 percentage points in national head-to-head races. According to RealClearPolling polling average shows Trump leading Enlarge If Stein, Kennedy and West are included as options, the number is 4.2%.
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