Democratic strategist James Carville on Monday warned Democrats not to get overconfident about Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning, given that former President Donald Trump's approval ratings have historically been higher than his average approval rating.
Trump currently leads Harris by 0.1 percentage points in seven key districts. Battleground StatesMeanwhile, the vice president holds a 1.5% lead over the former president. NationwideHarris has more than 1 million supporters, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Carville said on “The Lead with Jake Tapper” that there are a number of potential obstacles for Harris, particularly the fact that Trump tends to win more votes than the polls predict. (Related: “Is that a trick question?”: Kamala Harris rally-goers struggle to explain her policies)
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“Democrats are feeling good. There's no denying that. You look at the polls, Jake, and I'll remind you guys of a couple of things. First of all, most quants, and they're better at this than I am, say that the vice president has to win the popular vote by almost three points to win the Electoral College,” Carville told host Jake Tapper. “I'll also point out that when President Trump runs, he's going to outperform the polling averages. That's what happened in 2016. The national polls were actually pretty accurate, but they had no impact in the states.”
“Then in 2020, they swept through the states and it looked like Trump was going to win those states by 8 points. But that didn't happen. President Biden didn't do that… People need to inject some reality into their optimism,” he continued. “I'm glad people are feeling better. I'm glad people are excited. But if you look at this with a sense of history and objectivity, you see there are a lot of pitfalls that we could face. And we need to acknowledge that and stop being so upbeat all the time.”
CNN reporter Van Jones expressed concern on Monday that the race could be close between Trump and Harris, despite the vice president benefiting from weeks of “positive press. ” He also noted that Harris could see a surge in the polls after the Democratic National Convention.
“We don't want to be tied. We don't want to be tied with Donald Trump because we've had 20-plus days of favorable coverage. Trump has fallen down the stairs, he's slipped on a banana peel, he's poked himself in the eye. We shouldn't be tied. We want to be in the lead,” Jones said. “And that's our opportunity this week.”
Black male voters in Georgia said in a Sky News video on Monday that they support Trump because of his brash personality, business acumen and economic record as president.
“Some people don't like him, but I think he's a smart businessman,” one voter said. “Some people want to call him a jerk, but I think he's a great jerk.”
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