The report rightly focuses on the extent of China's military buildup and modernization plans.
The report errs in relying on China's highest official defense budget of $230 billion.
While this report is alarming, it almost certainly underestimates the threat posed by China.
Department of Defense Latest Annual Report china military power report That's quite correct. It pinpoints the scope of China's global ambitions and many of the structural reforms being implemented by Xi Jinping to make China the preeminent military power in the Asia-Pacific. Still, the report appears to underestimate the threat posed by China and what the United States will need to do to counter it.
What the report gets right
The report rightly focuses on the extent of China's military buildup and modernization plans. In 2022, China's Navy continued to expand its fleet, already the world's largest, is working on delivering a third aircraft carrier and a third amphibious assault ship, as well as additional guided missile destroyers, cruisers, and frigates. Beijing's navy will soon be able to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from both submarines and surface combatants.
The Chinese Air Force continues to modernize and produce increasingly advanced products. Domestic manned aircraft and unmanned aircraft. Together with the PLAN's air power, the PLAN currently constitutes the largest air force in the Indo-Pacific region. Led by the fifth-generation Ju-20 fighter jet, the Beijing Air Force is on its way to becoming the largest in the world.
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Perhaps most worryingly, the report shows that over the past 12 months; China has built 100 new nuclear weapons, making it the fastest growing nuclear power on the planet. The Chinese government is on track to match the United States' nuclear arsenal by 2032.
The report also shows that China deploy increasing military power In increasingly provocative ways. In the past two years, it has conducted more than 280 forcible and dangerous air intercepts against the United States and its allies.
Finally, the report documents the growing use of Chinese naval assets to intimidate and coerce fishing fleets operating in international waters not only in the Western Pacific but also into Latin America. All this is taking place against the backdrop of an unprecedented number of air and sea exercises in the waters and skies around Taiwan.
What's wrong with the report?
While all of these developments are legitimate causes for concern, especially for defense planners seeking to strengthen America's capabilities, The report erroneously relies on China's highest official defense budget of $230 billion.
At first glance, this number is only a fraction of the $886 billion that Congress just approved for the U.S. defense budget. When making this comparison, some observers invariably claim that the U.S. military is three to four times more capable than the Chinese military, but that is not necessarily true. As the paper admits, China's real defense budget is likely much higher: European think tanks estimate that China's real defense budget is at least 30-40 percent higher than the official budget. Many analyzes have concluded that the Chinese government is omitting large sums of money from official figures to hide the extent of its military buildup.
At least we know that China's budget does not include details of R&D spending. US defense budget is over $140 billion. To its credit, the Pentagon's report takes into account Beijing's military-civil convergence development strategy, in which China leverages civilian technology and industrial base to significantly strengthen the capabilities of its defense industrial base. I am. Confusingly, the report does not attempt to account for any of these important considerations when addressing the top line of China's defense budget.
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The report also does not account for the difference in purchasing power between the US and China. Simply put, China spends much more on defense than the United States because labor and material costs are lower in China.For example, Chinese soldiers They earn only about a quarter of what American military personnel earn..
Confusingly, the report says, “Economic forecasters predict that China's economic growth will slow over the next decade, from about 3% in 2022 to about 4% in 2025.” It has been stated. Obvious math problems aside, economic growth of about 4% is enough for the world's second-largest economy to continue expanding its military spending.
Earlier this year, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, Internal US government estimates have revealed that China's defense budget is approximately $700 billion. If this number were accurate, the Pentagon should have included it in its report. Estimating China's budget internally at about $700 billion, but telling Congress and the public that it's only $230 billion, reflects the relationship between the U.S. government's perception of the threat posed by China's military spending and the public's perception of it. This will create a large discrepancy between them.
During the Cold War, the Department of Defense utilized vast quantitative and intelligence resources to accurately assess the Soviet Union's defense budget. You should do so now to better understand China's actual defense budget and how it spends its resources compared to the United States.because While this report is alarming, it almost certainly underestimates the threat posed by China..
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This article Published by heritage foundation Reprinted with permission.
