Very unlikely to come true. But exactly how the situation is resolved could be an important test for America’s electoral system under duress. thwart it through the authentication process.

Here’s the basics of what’s happening (for more information, see Latest report by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Isaac Stanley-Becker):

• Two Republican superintendents of Cochise County, Arizona, have passed the deadline to certify their county’s election results.one of them Admitted This week, it was effectively a protest against the election in Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, rather than the outcome of that county. No evidence of fraud or fraudulent counting.)
• Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (Democrat) filed a lawsuit It is seeking a court order this week compelling the county to certify its results. She said it needed to be done before the state’s results had to be investigated by December 8 at the latest.
• Governor-elect Hobbes said that if Cochise County does not approve, “the only option is to complete a statewide canvas by December 8, not including the Cochise County vote.”
• Bloomberg news, etc. report Wednesday — and as some Democrats have happy to point out — If you don’t count the votes of Cochise County, which has a high Republican approval rating, you’ll lose a major Republican seat. Not only will it turn the race for public school superintendent over to the Democrats, 6th Congressional DistrictRepublican Juan Ciscomani won by a narrow margin.

If that seat moved to the Democrats, the Republican expected 222-213 majority would be cut to 221-214, The math is already hard for future House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Obtaining that post becomes even more dangerous. And Republicans will blame their election naysayers.

It’s a tantalizing possibility if you’re a Democrat, but for obvious reasons no one should be holding their breath and people should be careful what they want. It is also worth asking what would happen if someone like Hobbes were forced to make that decision.

For now, the situation appears calm. Her Peggy Judd, one of her Republican county supervisors, suggests the county will eventually prove its worth.

“We’re going to prove it,” said Judd. told the Daily Beast on Wednesday. She added, “We’re just holding off as long as we can.”

Even before Judd says so, there’s compelling reason to believe the situation won’t reach that point, and the system is resilient enough to prevent it.

For one, court orders resulting from the Hobbs litigation may compel supervisors to act, and such legal action has been successful before in similar situations.New Mexico Supreme Court earlier this year Ordered the Otello County Commissioner to certify their major results.Luzerne County, Pennsylvania proved the results on Wednesday facing lawsuits. Also, Mojave County, Arizona supervisors accredited the results this week after tinkering with what Cochise County was doing.The president of the Republican Party said reluctantly voted for certificationOtherwise, he feared being charged with a felony.

Potential criminal penalties may also motivate Cochise’s situation to be resolved.Former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard (Democrat) and former Maricopa County Attorney Rick Romley (Republican) Letters to State and County Prosecutors This week I recommend a criminal investigation. Arizona law It is a felony for election officials to “willfully” fail to meet their obligations.

The effort is also quite amateurish. Republican county attorneys refused to represent Republican supervisors in court and were infamouslycyber ninja” Except that lawyer turned them downleave them No legal representative ahead of Thursday’s hearing.

If we take Judd at his word, the county will finally vote for certification. on fridayBut what if the supervisor holds out?

that’s what we’ve been through Story from before the 2022 election, because the authentication process is the most readily available means for electoral deniers.And we’ve seen them try wield it.

“Arizona has never been in a situation like this before, nor have many other states.

Basically, there are several ways courts can compel public officials to prove things. This includes disgruntled candidates, voters (one such claim has already been filed), or who contracted with the county for election and left without a certified elected official. If courts enforce certification, officials like Judd really end up risking jail time by reaching out.

It’s also worth noting that Hobbes wasn’t quite as direct as some headlines suggest. She said she would have to vote without the Cochise County vote, but didn’t specifically say that would be the end result.

Patrick pointed out that natural disasters, such as hurricanes, can cause election results to be certified before all the results are in.

Even post-accreditation results are subject to legal challenges that people like Ciscomani can bring. Arizona law stipulates that Hobbes must campaign within 30 days after the election (which means he has until December 8), but must wait “until campaigns arrive from all counties.” It is This would create a conflict between the deadline Hobbes mentioned and her legal obligation to produce a complete canvas.

“We expect the trial court to order Cochise to prove quickly,” said Rick Heysen, an election law expert. “If Hobbes certifies her results without Cochise, I expect she will be sued herself and eventually an order will be issued to include Cochise’s results.”

Hobbes also has reasons to gesture in this direction. Because Republicans could put pressure on Cochise County officials.

Hobbs spokeswoman Sophia Solis reiterated to the Washington Post that if Cochise does not certify, Hobbs “will have no choice but to proceed with certification as per the law.” But she didn’t directly say whether Hobbes would actually feel compelled to make the Democrats the winners of the Sixth District, and whether that would make him superintendent of public schools.

Some Democrats may support the idea that this could cost Republicans a seat, but even if it’s speculative and unlikely, they don’t know what they want. We have to be really careful about where we are, because there is also the question of what kind of precedent to set. If refusal of certification can dictate competition, what can we do to stop other local officials from abusing the system when it benefits them? (Republican candidate Kari Lake, who lost to Hobbes, denies the election. encourage people to go to prison willingly.)

Most of the time, as in Cochise County, Republican election officials tend to preside over Republican areas, so they’ll probably hurt their own side. In 2020, we’ve seen how Republicans can withhold certification in the highly democratic Wayne County, home to Detroit, where election commissions are evenly divided. (they finally tolerant.)

We’ll probably never know what would happen if Cochise County officials adamantly refused certification. But consider what that hypothesis might mean when applied elsewhere. We have come to the point where we need to. Some states, such as Colorado, have passed laws to address such legally untested situations, and some have Other authorities have given authority to certify results. And his tactics are so novel and ripe for abuse.

“It opens up this kind of playbook for unfolding not just in 2024, but beyond,” said Patrick.