Experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that several Republican challengers in Senate battleground states are trailing former President Donald Trump in vote margin, but the party remains in position to win a majority. He said there is a possibility.
Experts told the DCNF that while the latest poll may sound a wake-up call in battleground states such as Arizona and Michigan, Republican Senate candidates may be lagging behind due to factors such as name recognition and lack of campaign funds. He said it was expensive. But Americans’ dissatisfaction with the current political and economic climate could give Republicans the advantage they need to regain the majority. senate. (Related: ‘They’re being exploited by Democrats’: Trump caused seismic shifts among blue-collar voters)
“In many cases, Republican candidates are relatively unknown,” John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told DCNF. “Challengers will not have the same first and last name ID as Mr. Trump.”
“We still have a month until Election Day,” McHenry continued. “There is still plenty of time to close the gap.”
PHILADELPHIA, PA – JUNE 22: Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick poses with Republican presidential candidate Donald during a campaign rally at the Liacouras Center on June 22, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.・Speech alongside former President Trump. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Trump is first Vice President Kamala Harris has a 16.6 point lead in Montana, while Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy has a 16.6 point lead. hold He has a 6.7 point lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, according to RealClearPolling averages and FiveThirtyEight’s projections. Trump in Texas take the lead Harris won by 5.2 percentage points, but Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who is running against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, boast There is also a 5 point advantage. (Related article: Battleground states with few electoral votes could give Harris a “huge blow” in November, potentially overpowering her)
“The Montana Senate race looks very favorable for Republicans,” McHenry told DCNF. “Tester is a bit like a cockroach and is almost impossible to kill. He once won a race he was supposed to lose. But cockroaches die eventually, right?”
Trump has a 1.4 percentage point lead over Harris in Sunbelt states. arizona 1.1 points difference from Democratic candidate nevadaaccording to the RealClearPolling average. Meanwhile, Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake received 7.8 points. behind Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego and Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown drop down He is 8.5 points behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen.
“The Trump brand is more popular than the Republican brand,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told DCNF. “That’s a big deal. There are more Trump supporters than Republicans.”
Mr Chand also said the difference in the polls was partly due to voter enthusiasm and the party’s “machine”.
“Polls measure what someone would want to do if given the opportunity,” Chand told DCNF. “But the whole execution aspect still remains. With the dysfunction of the RNC and the dysfunction of the party committees, they don’t have the ability to execute. I don’t think the machinery exists to make it happen. .” (Related article: Harris’ honeymoon ends in failure as President Trump leads in Sunbelt battleground)
Polls paint a similar picture for Trump in the Rust Belt successor In Wisconsin, Harris defeated Republican Sen. Eric Hovde by just 0.8 percentage points. face According to the RealClearPolling average, she has a 3.5 point lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Harris too first In Michigan, Republican Sen. Mike Rogers leads President Trump by 0.7 percentage points. successor He lost by three points to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told DCNF, “Donald Trump, like President Reagan in 1980, is a Republican in the Senate.” “We are providing the foundation for these challengers to win.” “As Trump makes strides in battleground states, voters remain solid for Republican challengers Dave McCormick, Kari Lake, Eric Hovde, Mike Rogers and Sam Brown.”
“Voters are tired of inflation, open borders, crime, higher taxes, and they’re worried about war,” McLaughlin told DCNF. “Just as Joe Biden and Harris failed, so will their Senate allies.”
While Trump is “providing the base,” candidates like Hovde and Rodgers continue to “gain momentum.”
“Eric Hovde continues to gain momentum and there is a jump ball race in the Democratic Party polls,” Hovde spokesman Zach Bannon told DCNF. “The people of Wisconsin are ready for change, and Eric Hovde will prevail.”
“This is the closest race in the nation and a great opportunity for Republicans,” Rogers Senate Communications Director Chris Gustafson told DCNF. “Mike Rogers is fighting hard to win the votes of Michiganders and sharing his plans to help families living paycheck to paycheck under Mr. Slotkin and Mr. Harris.”
Pennsylvania is the battleground with the most people. election Trump and Harris are in a heated battle in terms of votes. According to to the average of RealClearPolling. The race isn’t that close for the leading Senate candidates, with Republican candidate Dave McCormick facing a 4-point gain. deficit A showdown with incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey. (Related: Experts say key battleground states are once again ‘critical’ to President Trump’s chances of taking back the White House)
“I think the more structural explanation is that Donald Trump simply has a broader political base than many of his challengers,” said Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland. he told DCNF. “Donald Trump portrays himself as an outsider fighting against insiders. This not only allows him to maintain his political base primarily driven by dissatisfaction with the status quo of government, but it also allows him to be challenged on all policy issues. It could also alienate some disaffected Democrats who don’t agree with it, but who feel as though they are part of the establishment in Washington, a closed-door society where they can’t shake hands. is.”
“At the same time, these Republican Senate candidates simply outspend their Democratic counterparts, and in most cases by a significant margin,” Foxwell continued.
As of July 31, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had raised $385 million and the Republican National Committee (RNC) had raised $331 million. According to Go to OpenSecrets. Even in the 2024 election, the DNC outspent the RNC by about $100 million, including transfers to other political committees.
Despite these potential disadvantages, Foxwell said the current political and economic context could give Republican candidates an advantage. (Related: Harris’ lead in key demographics shrinks compared to past Democratic candidates)
“If I were running for a Democratic Party anywhere right now, I would be afraid of the recent economic and fiscal fallout,” Foxwell told DCNF. “That’s what keeps me up at night more than anything else.”
“The environment in which these candidates are running is very fluid,” Foxwell told DCNF. “As long as Republican candidates can bring all these elements together to paint a picture of a chaotic world under Democratic leadership and themselves as a more positive option, they definitely have a chance.”
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