One of the hallmarks of Donald Trump's tenure as leader of the Republican Party has been the strength of his support, but last night this suffered a rare blow.
Four of the seven Trumpsapproved Candidates including Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert won Tuesday's primary election. Appear She won the race despite receiving only 43.4% of the vote. MAGA supporters suffered further losses in the Utah gubernatorial primary, despite Trump not issuing a formal endorsement.
Given that Trump scored one of his biggest victories to date last week; appear Trump's candidate of choice, John Maguire, defeating Libertarian Caucus Chairman Bob Good is especially odd: How could Trump defeat a conservative heavyweight with deep ties to his own district and then lose support in three states in the same night?
In fact, this has nothing to do with national trends, nor is it a sign that Trump is losing control over the Republican Party. The epicenter of these rare losses was two western states, Colorado and Utah, whose demographics have historically not favored Trump, and that continued to be the case last night. (Related article: The Supreme Court's final decision will change the 2024 election.)
First up, Utah. Last night, John Curtis, a longtime and vocal critic of Trump, beat Salt Lake City Mayor Trent Staggs endorsed Trump in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.MAGA supporters Phil Lyman also lost in the primary to incumbent Governor Spencer Cox, a Trump critic.
🚨BREAKING: John Curtis officially wins 2024 Utah Republican Senate Primary
He defeated Mayor Trent Staggs, who was endorsed by President Trump.
He has yet to endorse Trump and said in 2017 that the border wall is racist. He is a member of the Main Street Republican Partnership. pic.twitter.com/BsIwX6DBDq
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) June 26, 2024
The Republican Party's western stronghold has never been friendly to Trump during his political tenure. lost In 2016, Trump swept through the state's Republican caucus, trailing not only Ted Cruz but also John Kasich, with Trump receiving just 14% approval, far ahead of Kasich's 16.8% and Cruz's 69.2%.
That's largely because Trump is struggling relatively among Mormon voters, a conservative religious group that typically doesn't consider choosing a Democrat in a general election but is vocal in Republican-only races. (Related: New 'misleading video' hoax gets out of control)
In July 2023, vote The survey also found that more than half of Mormons dislike former President Trump, with 40% of them saying they have a “very unfavorable” view of him. This is a stark contrast to other conservative religious groups. The same survey also found that 67% of “white evangelical Protestants” have a favorable view of Trump, compared with 48% of Mormons. compensate They make up 67.7% of Utah's population, making them one of the most dominant voting groups among U.S. states.
This trend is also evident in the general election, with Utah Considered The state has been a battleground state since Evan McMullin, an independent and Mormon, entered the race in 2016. Some thought McMullin could win the state and deadlock the Electoral College contest.
Although McMullin's sabotage did not result in a victory, he Earned He received 21.3% of the vote in the state, a big number for a third-party candidate. This dropped Trump's approval rating to 45.1%, but is notable considering that in the past four elections, Republican candidates have received at least 62.5% of the vote. Trump beat runner-up Hillary Clinton by 20% and represented a 30-point increase in support for Democrats. 2012 An election in which Mormon Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by more than 51%.
Trump also failed to live up to these expectations in 2020. receive Turnout was just 58%. Utah In 2020, it received the second-highest third-party vote share in the country after Alaska, and continues to resist the former president. Nikki Haley is also doing relatively well in 2024, receiving 42.7% of the support in the March election. Major.
Senator Mike Lee of Utah, an ally of President Trump, defeat McMullin ran for Senate in 2022 but received just 11.5% of the vote. Utah's previous Senate election was won by Mitt Romney in 2018. victory At over 30%, this is another example of how Utahns have opposed Trump without shifting left.
Colorado is another example of a state where the Republican Party has never been friendly to Trump: Last night, Trump-backed Dave Williams lost his primary by more than 30% and leading Trump supporter Lauren Boebert won but failed to get more than half the vote.
Ted Cruz defeat In 2016, Trump won nearly 73% of the vote in the state's Republican convention, winning nearly all of the delegates the state had on offer. Colorado still overwhelmingly supports Trump, but it did give Nikki Haley one of its best delegates. Performance She has announced her candidacy for president in 2024. She won about a third of the votes in the March 5 primary.
Trump also oversaw a trend in which Colorado, a typically swing state, has swung to Democrats in the general election: Before Hillary Clinton took a nearly 5% lead, Colorado had been decided by margins of 2.5% or less in three consecutive elections. victory Joe Biden's 13.5% in 2016 Landslide In 2020.
The last Republican to win a statewide election was former Sen. Cory Gardner. 2014It was the last national election before Trump's political ascent began. Gardner 2020 To former Governor John Hickenlooper, it's worth noting that despite Biden's landslide victory in the state, Gardner lost by 9.3 percentage points.
Colorado is home to a key demographic that has plagued Trump since the day he began his campaign: college-educated voters, and the latest polls have shown Colorado to be the top state in the nation for education levels. CensusUS News reported.
Trump's failure to capture the support of this quintessential Republican base is one of his biggest weaknesses in the election. Winner Mitt Romney won 6% of these voters in 2004 and 3% in 2012, but Trump Five Hillary Clinton, percent 12% To Joe Biden: This mistake would be fatal in a state like Colorado and would not bode well for him in the primary or statewide elections.
Trump has the same electoral weaknesses as any candidate in political history. He doesn't get enough support from Mormons or college-educated people. That hurt him and his cause in two states last night, but it means nothing to his support nationally. In most places, Trump support is the Republican Party's golden ticket, and it will continue to be sought after. It's just not foolproof.
