As Arizona political junkies feverishly refresh their screens to count the remaining votes, early numbers show why Donald Trump is poised to win the state he lost four years ago One of them is clear.
Call it Border County Revenge.
Based on past counts, Pima County has not changed its voting pattern. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump There is an 18 percentage point difference, and as of Thursday morning, Kamala Harris appeared to hold that lead with a 17 percentage point advantage.
Most of Pima County’s border with Mexico is part of the sparsely populated Tohono O’odham Nation. The majority of residents live in and around northern Tucson.
The story is very different in the remaining three border counties.
Trump wins even in blue-leaning counties
Trump defeated Biden in Cochise County in the southeastern part of the state.
In 2020, Republicans received The vote share was 58%, with the Democratic Party receiving 39%. Despite Cochise County’s historical red trend, Trump significantly improved its performance in 2024.
So far, Mr. Trump holds a significant lead over Ms. Harris, 68% to 31%.
Santa Cruz, with its county seat in Nogales, is a reliable Democratic stronghold. In 2020, Mr. Biden received Trump received a whopping 67% of the vote, with just 32% of the vote.
This year brought big changes. Trump won by 8 points, with Harris receiving 59% of the vote and 40% for Trump on Thursday. This is important for a county where 82% of residents are Latino.
This leaves Yuma, the last border county, in the southwestern corner of Arizona. In the last presidential election, Trump defeated Biden 52% to 46%. This time, Trump received 65% of the vote on Thursday, compared to 35% for Harris.
Biden-Harris border policy likely to be the culprit
What caused the 10-point shift to Trump in Cochise County? The 8-point Republican increase in Santa Cruz? And finally, the 13-point red wave in Yuma County?
Each became the front lines of Biden and Harris’ disastrous border policies.
While politicians bickered in Washington, illegal immigrants were passing through these desert regions, disrupting small communities and taxing limited public services.
opinion:Latinos, don’t complain when Trump comes.
The number of immigrants is truly staggering.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has divided the southern border into several sections, two of which cover Arizona. The Tucson area occupies the border from the New Mexico state line to Yuma County.
The Yuma sector covers 126 miles from the Pima County line to California’s Imperial Sand Dunes. California portion of this division fenced in Since the 1990s, encounters in their areas have decreased dramatically.
Border counties in Arizona roar at polling places
Adding up border crossings from 2021 to 2024 This shows that the Biden-Harris administration is unable to provide basic security.
The Tucson area had 1,280,408 encounters. There were 652,660 encounters in the Yuma sector.
During Biden and Harris’ first term, more than 1.9 million illegal immigrants passed through Arizona’s four border counties. When residents complained, national media often ignored them, accusing them of racism, despite the large Latino population living there.
Of course, when there are few immigrants were airlifted Within hours, the Massachusetts National Guard bused them out to the elite enclave of Martha’s Vineyard. The wealthy playground could not withstand the influx of 50 uninvited guests.
That’s something struggling border towns like Douglas, Nogales and Yuma have to deal with.
America has long welcomed immigrants, a fact evidenced by our liberal naturalization laws. We want people to become citizens. But the unregulated entry of 1.9 million people into a single state is alarming Americans of all backgrounds.
Tired of being ignored for years, Arizona’s border counties are finally speaking out.
Now to the ballot box.
John Gabriel lives in Mesa. ricochet.com He is also a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On X (formerly Twitter): @exjon.
