Former President Donald Trump’s chances of securing an Electoral College victory in the upcoming November election have increased after polls showed him leading in Michigan.
JL Partners According to a Michigan poll released on the 2nd, models show Mr. Trump has an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, with Mr. Trump having a 58.8% chance of winning the electoral college and 41.1% for Ms. Harris. It became. Thursday Michigan News Source and MIRS show him leading in the Great Lakes state. previous vote The New York Times and Siena College revealed that Harris and Trump are in a close race in the key battleground state of Michigan.
“Things continue to trend against Harris, with Trump’s odds of winning increasing by another two points since last week. The margin of victory has now widened to nearly 18 points,” JL Partners data. said scientist Callum Hunter. According to to the Daily Mail.
“The fact that Michigan has joined the Trump campaign is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign. This week’s new polls could temper the increasingly good news for President Trump,” Hunter said. spoke.
🚨 New: @DailyMail @J_L_Partners Election model 🚨
Trump’s probability of victory was 58.8%. Michigan went from Tosup Harris to Tosup Trump.
New median estimate:
🏆Trump: 302
Harris: 236story: https://t.co/Jt6T1lMhIt
data: https://t.co/qzcKPveJtE
— JL Partners🇺🇸 (@J_L_Partners) October 8, 2024
The model used by JL Partners analyzes the latest polling data, 80 years of election results, and economic statistics to predict each candidate’s electoral odds. We predict that Harris has a fairly good chance of winning the popular vote, consistent with the Democratic Party’s performance in seven of the past eight elections. (Related article: Battleground states with few electoral votes could give Harris a “huge blow” in November, potentially overpowering her)
RealClearPolling’s average shows Trump trailing Harris in Michigan by just 0.5 percentage points. In the 2016 presidential election, he secured Michigan’s victory with 47.5% of the vote, beating Hillary Clinton’s 47.3%, but lost to President Joe Biden in 2020, receiving 47.8% of the vote, and Biden’s He won with 50.6% and 270 votes. reported.
Harris and the Trump campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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