Election Uncertainty for Valadao Amid Controversial Medicaid Cuts

Central Valley Representative David Valadao, already a prime target for the Democratic Party, is putting his political future on shaky ground this week by supporting legislation that reduces Medicaid funding, which is crucial for approximately two-thirds of his constituents.

The Republican dairy farmer from Hanford acknowledged concerns over President Trump’s infrastructure plan but ultimately voted for it, believing it would secure additional funds for his district—like $25 billion for rural hospitals and $1 billion for water infrastructure and agricultural projects.

According to the UC Berkeley Labor Center, more than half a million residents in Valadao’s district rely on California’s Medicaid program. Despite tax credits benefiting the wealthy, the bill, passed with a Republican majority in both the House and Senate, aims to cut federal Medicaid spending by $1.04 trillion over the next decade, as per estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

Valadao argued that several aspects of the law would directly benefit local families, including tax credit extensions, the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, and an increase in child tax credits. “These are real wins that put money back in the pockets of hardworking families throughout the valley,” he stated. “While not perfect, this bill emphasizes priorities for my district—commitment to lower taxes, robust farming, improved infrastructure, and access to healthcare.”

Democrats have vowed to leverage Valadao’s vote against him in the 2026 election. His district, encompassing parts of Kern, Kings, and Tulare Counties, is noted for its competitiveness.

Valadao has repeatedly pledged to resist legislation that harms healthcare for his constituents. Recently, on social media, he expressed that he could not support a final bill that would enforce harmful Medicaid cuts or disrupt healthcare stability beyond his district.

After his vote on Thursday, Valadao justified his support by emphasizing that Medicaid is vital for “its intended recipients—children, pregnant women, disabled individuals, and seniors.”

Critics were swift to react. “David Valadao sealed his fate by voting for a bill that jeopardizes healthcare for tens of thousands in his district,” one critic stated. “He lied to their faces and then tried to sweep it under the rug. We all knew he’d fold when it mattered most. It’s cowardly, unjust, and could cost him his seat next November.”

Another individual declared, “David Valadao lied. He voted for cuts to Medicaid while giving tax credits to CEOs. We pay with our lives.” This sentiment was echoed by protestors who gathered at Representative Young Kim’s office urging lawmakers to oppose the legislation.

Trump’s proposal narrowly passed the Senate, with Vice President JD Vance casting a crucial tie-breaking vote, as three GOP senators broke ranks with their party to oppose it.

The law significantly alters the nation’s tax structure by approving cuts initiated during Trump’s first term, which many believe will overwhelmingly benefit businesses and wealthier individuals while drastically reducing funding for essential federal programs like Medicaid and food assistance programs.

A CBO analysis released recently estimated that from 2025 to 2034, the national deficit would increase by nearly $3.3 trillion, leading to 11.8 million Americans losing their health insurance within the next decade.

This legislation has created divisions among Republicans, with some opposing the deficit increase while others worry about its impact on their constituencies. However, GOP members in Congress ultimately set aside differences to advance the president’s goals ahead of Independence Day.

Dissent surrounding Valadao’s vote is notable, particularly considering his reliance on support from Medicaid. His previous opposition to Trump and the GOP’s focus on maintaining control in his district further complicate the situation.

According to the California Target Book, which analyzes Congressional elections, over 40% of voters in Valadao’s district are Democrats, while only about 28% identify as Republicans, with the remainder registered as independents.

At 48, Valadao’s political career has seen ups and downs; he first served in the state legislature before being elected to Congress in 2012. Despite being re-elected twice, he only narrowly regained his seat in 2020.

His support for Trump during critical times—such as the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection—had previously stirred discontent among fellow Republicans, yet Valadao seemed insulated from backlash due to his connections with influential lawmakers like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

California Governor Gavin Newsom weighed in on Valadao’s actions, stating he should resign if he backs the bill. “It would be the ultimate betrayal,” Newsom remarked. “This is one of the most devastating bills we’ve faced.” He further predicted that if passed, the law could close hospitals, deny Californians healthcare and food support, and increase student debt.

Newsom suggested Valadao may need to resign early, saying, “If you betray your own constituency to such a staggering degree, what legitimacy do you have within your district? It’s one of the poorest in the country.”