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Vice President Kamala Harris now Democrats’ last hope against Trump

Suddenly, Kamala Harris became the Democrats’ last best hope of preventing the return of the Trump administration and a complete MAGA takeover of Washington.

It's a prospect that excites some Democrats and terrifies others.

As vice president, Harris was always seen as President Biden's most likely political successor, but her succession was hastened by several years when Biden abandoned his difficult reelection campaign on Sunday.

Given the limited time before the nominating convention begins on August 19 and the short time until the November 5 election, handing the Democratic nomination to Harris would be the quickest and most immediate step the party could take.

Biden also had to consider the political ramifications of ignoring the nation's first female, Black and Asian American vice president, which would have alienated much of former President Trump's core base at a time when he was making significant inroads with the Democratic base.

When Harris takes over for Biden, she automatically inherits the campaign finances and infrastructure. After all, it was the Biden-Harris Reelection Committee. This handover is significant. It would be impossible for another Democrat to build a viable political operation or raise from scratch the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to win the White House.

But just because Harris is a logical alternative to Biden doesn't make her any closer to being the consensus choice.

Some will hope for a sort of mini-primary between now and the convention, romanticizing what would quickly become a bitterly contested situation with little time to heal before November. A notable parallel is to 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson suddenly resigned rather than seek reelection. Democrats met in Chicago, which coincidentally will host the convention next month, and blood spilled in the streets, leading to a narrow defeat for the controversial candidate, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, in November.

For better or worse, it's Harris.

Part of the concern about her elevation has to do with perceptions of the American electorate and the country's attitudes toward race and gender: To put it bluntly, a segment of the population just won't support anyone other than a white man for president. That may be unfair, but it's not something Harris can change.

So the question is: How would her entry into the Democratic race change the political dynamics of the presidential race? Would rising enthusiasm in black neighborhoods in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia make up for a loss of white support in rural Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

Will North Carolina, with its large black population, become more competitive? Will New Hampshire and Maine, which are almost entirely white and largely rural, become less competitive?

That won't be known for some time, but Harris' strategists will soon have to decide how and where to most effectively allocate the resources, time and energy of the vice president and any future running mates.

The bigger question is whether the vice president has grown as a candidate since his disastrous 2020 election performance — as Democrats no doubt hope.

“Her campaign was a mess,” said Jim Manley, who worked as a communications strategist for Democratic leaders during her decades in the Senate. “It fell apart with a barrage of accusations, and she made some strategic mistakes along the way. I'm just concerned about how she'll run this time.”

The biggest problem in 2020 was the candidates themselves.

The historic nature of her candidacy generated great enthusiasm, but lacking a stirring issue or a strong ideological base, she was unable to build on that enthusiasm.

As a candidate, Ms. Harris has been tentative and equivocal, shifting positions on health care and other issues and failing especially on politically obvious questions like whether the Boston Marathon bombers should be allowed to vote from prison. (After some hesitant reflection, Ms. Harris answered no.)

She withdrew from the race before a single vote was cast, and her candidacy and political promises vanished in smoke. By making Harris his running mate, Biden rescued the junior California senator from the purgatory of a Congressional seat she never liked.

But her early years in the White House didn't help her political image, as she was tasked with a tough set of issues, including immigration, and received little notable support from Biden. Voters will likely hear plenty of Republican criticism about how Harris bungled her role as “border secretary.”

A series of gaffes early in her administration shook Harris' confidence, leading to further missteps that have further snarled her in disarray, and voters will be hearing a lot more about her from Republicans. Many early gaffes and misunderstandings.

But Harris' performance improved over time, especially once he found a problem to work on.

The 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and stripping Americans of their right to an abortion could give Harris the purpose she had been missing as a presidential candidate. More importantly, the fight for abortion rights gave her a role in prosecuting the case against the Republican Party that is familiar and comfortable for Harris, a former trial lawyer.

No doubt she would look forward to a debate with Trump, the architect of the Supreme Court, who is unlikely to overwhelm her as he did the hapless Biden. The contrast between career prosecutor and convicted criminal is one Democrats would love to make.

Given all this, Harris may end up being a terrible candidate. 2020 may not have been an exception. That may have been the best outcome she could have.

But after Biden's loss in that fateful debate in June, Democrats were left with only bad options: At 81 years old, the aging president seemed almost certain to lose to Trump, perhaps so badly that the Democratic candidates for the House and Senate would fall along with him.

Why not take a chance?

Harris may not be the best candidate to take on Trump (where are the physical candidates?), but she gives Democrats a chance to win the White House and flip the House, and many were willing to give up as long as Biden was an anchor on their shortlist.

For that matter, the party is in better shape than it was 24 hours ago.

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