“Who will win?”

Everyone who writes about politics hears this question all the time, and let me start by being clear: I don't know, and neither does anyone else.

As the election race enters its final stages, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Trump in most national polls.Average: 47%-44%She also has slight leads in two districts. 7 Battleground StatesWisconsin, and Michigan, but neither candidate has a consistent lead in the remaining five states.

The two main models attempting to predict the election disagree. economist Giving Harris a slight edge, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin I'm leaning just a little bit towards Trump.

The models are very sophisticated and perform well. But the polls they build have historically been wrong by a few points. They underestimated Trump support in 2016 and 2020, but they underestimated Democratic support in 2012. We can assume there will likely be polling error this year as well, but we cannot know in advance its magnitude or direction.

Moreover, all electoral models are built on relatively thin foundations.

Those wanting to bet on the outcome of baseball games have access to data on over 238,000 major league games from the past 150 years. In contrast, the United States has only had 19 presidential elections since widespread public opinion polls began to provide reasonably reliable data. There is a limit to the information that can be gained from such a small sample.

What we can learn are some of the key trends that will shape the race as both sides prepare for the debates scheduled for next week.

It's all about Harris

Harris' definition It's key for both sides.

So far, the vice president is performing well, with her support growing among voters despite continued Republican attacks since President Biden dropped out of the race in July. Share your positive opinion A new YouGov/Economist poll found that 48% of people approve of her, well above the 42% who approve of President Trump.

She also closed the gap with Trump on some key metrics. For example, a YouGov poll found that roughly equal shares of voters view both candidates as strong leaders: 51% for Harris and 53% for Trump.

The race has changed since Biden dropped out. It's not that Trump's support has fallen, but rather that Harris has garnered support, primarily from third-party voters and those who were previously undecided.

That's not surprising.

Trump's voting has been remarkably consistent. 46% in 2016, 47% in 2020And if you take the current average from pollster FiveThirtyEight and exclude undecideds, his approval rating falls in the same range again.

Americans know what they think about the former president, who for many years was one of the country's best-known figures before entering elected politics a decade ago.

Democrats have argued that Trump has become mentally frail and is more dangerous as president than he was before, but after four years as president and two election campaigns, January 6th Capitol attack, Multiple indictments and One CertaintyIt's unlikely that any new information will change many people's minds about him.

Harris is not a newcomer, but the vice presidency is not a job that commands the attention of most voters, nor allows them to set their own priorities, leaving a significant number of them with lingering doubts about who she is and what she stands for.

A YouGov/Economist poll underscores that point: It found that 36% of American adults said they would like to see and hear more from Harris, compared with just 22% who said they would like to see and hear more from Trump.

Among Latinos, who make up a disproportionate share of swing voters, 46% said they wanted to know more about Harris, compared with 14% who said they wanted to know more about Trump.

That's why the Sept. 10 debate could be so important: It's the event that a large portion of the electorate will see and hear.

and, Whether the candidate's microphone will be turned on Alternatively, regardless of whether they get distracted when her opponent is speaking or what fierce attacks Trump launches, undecided voters will focus primarily on who Harris is as a person and what she stands for.

Where Harris falls short

Harris has won back much of the support Biden lost among young people, Latinos and black voters, but most polls still show her running somewhat below what President Obama did in 2008 and 2012, and what Biden did in 2020.

There are two reasons for this performance degradation:

In many opinion polls, Trump performs significantly better with black and Latino votersThey have been more aggressive in their campaigns than recent Republican candidates, particularly young men.

Whether that's true is hotly debated — subsamples of general election polls can be misleading, and not all polls agree — but it remains a big question mark for the election. If Trump's support among voters of color were closer to the average, Harris would be in a better position to win.

Another factor is that younger voters and voters of color (two groups that often overlap) make up a disproportionate share of the undecided population, following a pattern in past elections in which these groups delayed their decision.

Polls show roughly 1 in 6 voters are either undecided or likely to change their mind before Election Day.

Only a small fraction of voters are truly undecided between Trump and Harris — for many of them, the bigger question is whether to vote at all.

These unsure voters generally do not hold strong ideological beliefs and usually identify themselves as moderates.

Above all, they tend not to pay much attention to political issues.

If you want to paint a picture, picture a young parent desperately trying to balance work with getting their toddler to daycare.

They have a lot of bills to pay and are very sensitive to the cost of living, with housing costs in particular being a bigger issue for them than older voters who are more likely to own their homes and not be considering moving.

They typically don't have time to follow the details of a candidate's tax reform plan or the latest developments in the Gaza war. Instead, they tend to judge candidates on broad impressions — the kind of mental shortcuts pollsters try to capture by asking which candidates care about people like me and can make the right changes.

The debate could be Harris' key opportunity to grab their attention.

Anti-Trump Republicans

There is one group of potential swing voters with a very different profile: Republicans who are skeptical of Trump.

As the primaries showed, a significant number of Republicans did not want Trump to be the nominee, and while most accept the results, not all do.

The Harris campaign has given a prime speaking slot at the Democratic Convention to a former Harris campaign aide and has been eager to court her opponents. Congressman Adam Kinzinger Illinois and Former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan.

As a result, attention this week has been focused on two conservative former Republican lawmakers who have publicly said they will not vote for Trump.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey said Tuesday CNBC Interview.

“If I lose the election and then I try to overturn the election results to stay in power, then at that point I lose,” he said, adding that he would not vote for either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It's an acceptable position for me to say that neither candidate is suitable for me to be a presidential candidate.”

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, speaking at Duke University in North Carolina on Wednesday, went further:

“Donald Trump, no matter what your policy views are, whether you're a conservative Republican or not, you cannot entrust him with power,” she said.

“I don't think there's any room to write in the candidate's name, especially in battleground states,” she said, disagreeing with Toomey. “As a conservative, as someone who believes in and values ​​the Constitution, I've thought deeply about this. Given the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only will I not be voting for Donald Trump, I will be voting for Kamala Harris.”

Cheney plans to campaign aggressively in battleground states over the coming weeks, taking an anti-Trump stance.

Those who cross party lines and vote for the other candidate will be a minority, but in a close election their influence could be significant — making them an even harder factor to predict in what has already been a highly unpredictable year.

What else to read

This week's poll: Voters' stubborn pessimism about America's trajectory begins to ease

Saturday Must Read: Progressives need to learn to embrace victory.

LA Times Feature: “Defund the police” or rethink safety? Kamala Harris' Record on American Historical Issues
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