Those hoping to replace Joe Biden with California Governor Gavin Newsom or other Democrats on the 2024 presidential ballot are likely to be disappointed.

Despite renewed concerns about the president's age, party officials and pollsters say replacing him would be a bad idea and nearly impossible without Biden's approval.

Cornell Belcher, one of former President Obama's pollsters, said, “There's almost no one who's done this at this level who thinks it's reasonable to remove a sitting U.S. president who is a Democrat from the ballot.'' ” he said. “It's completely unreasonable.”

Last week, the special counsel questioned Biden's mental capacity in a report explaining why criminal charges for possession of classified documents are not warranted, providing new fodder for the president's critics and warning that Biden is It fueled concerns about his ability to serve a four-year term.

Host of ABC's “The View” The conversation ignited on Friday. In an on-air debate about Biden's candidacy and whether Vice President Kamala Harris or Newsom is the better option for the party. Republican Chris Christiea former New Jersey governor and former presidential candidate, and other political commentators have suggested that Democrats should replace Biden with another candidate.

Here are five reasons why Biden, not Newsom, is almost certain to remain the Democratic presidential nominee.

1) Gone are the days of smoke-filled rooms.

Like most sitting presidents, Mr. Biden is at the helm of his party, meaning people working at the Democratic National Committee and other party organizations are aligned with his campaign. The deadline to challenge him in Democratic primaries has expired in most states, including California, and he faces only marginal opposition. He could succeed him if he chooses to step down and free up delegates at the party's national convention in Chicago in August, the first such scenario in decades. It didn't happen.

“I think there are a lot of people who think they're Plan B,” said David Axelrod, the Obama administration's chief strategist. “But Plan A seems pretty determined to stay in the race.”

Even under a remote scenario in which Biden cancels the opening convention and walks out, chaos would be more likely than agreement.

“There's a myth that we're living in the 1940s and a bunch of party leaders got together and said, 'That's our guy,'” Axelrod said. “That doesn't work anymore. There will be a number of people who surface. I think the chances of that emergency happening are very low.”

Another Democratic operative with ties to California and major East Coast bases and big donors said there had been lingering rumors about a search for a replacement since last year, but there had been no serious discussions. The operative, who requested anonymity to avoid resentment from party leaders, said most people recognized the need to move on from illusions of replacement.

Belcher said the most tumultuous intraparty talks are being fueled by progressives, the same people who made similar arguments ahead of Obama's second term.

But even the most liberal people within the Democratic Party opposed the idea.

R.L. Miller, a DNC delegate from California and founder of the Climate Hawks Vote, said the possibility of Biden withdrawing from the race was a “highly unlikely scenario” and that his party He said the possibility of appointing Newsom to replace him is even more remote.

“Maybe I should write about the possibility of an asteroid hitting the sky and wiping out all the light on the west side of the Hudson River, where 'The View' was filmed,” Miller said.

2) Time has passed

Hans Noel, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University, said that if Biden were to resign today, Democrats seeking to replace him could rush to run in a small number of states where the deadline for viewing primary ballots has not passed. said. The decision to choose a successor will be deferred to this summer's Democratic National Convention.

Delegates will likely choose Biden on the first ballot. Mr. Biden would have to turn it down. Delegates will vote for their successor on a second ballot, and so on, until a candidate is chosen.

If Mr. Biden announced his plans in advance, his successor would have more time to campaign. Things will get even more complicated if he declines the nomination at the party's convention.

“Right now, all the people who are delegates are free to vote for whoever they think is the right candidate,” Noel said of the situation.

The process could be similar to the 1968 Democratic National Convention, also held in Chicago. Months before the convention, then-President Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not seek re-election, and candidate Robert Kennedy was killed after winning the California Democratic primary.

Amid protests, violence and efforts to nominate real pigsdelegates selected Johnson's vice president, Hubert Humphrey, as the Democratic nominee.

If Biden withdraws after the convention, it could trigger an even more uncertain and unprecedented process.

3) Newsom will also remain on Team Biden.

“Billions of percent,” said Sean Clegg, a senior political adviser to Mr. Newsom. “If President Biden asks this guy to do something, he will do it and do everything in his power to support the ticket.”

Mr. Clegg said the Newsom campaign has not discussed a possible replacement for Mr. Biden.

He appears to be enjoying the national spotlight, actively seeking to raise his profile with voters across the country, and late last year successfully wooing his Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, to appear on Fox News. That may be hard to believe from a governor who has successfully debated. Year.

At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, Biden praised Newsom's performance as governor, perhaps unintentionally fueling speculation.

“The truth is, he can be anything he wants.” Biden joked. “He might get the job I'm looking for.”

Mr. Newsom has repeatedly denied having presidential ambitions, but has been cautious in answering questions about his candidacy, praising Mr. Biden.

“I would go to the ends of the earth for this man.” Newsom said in an interview on MSNBC.

4) What about the current Vice President?

Miller said Democratic politicians Harris, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Newsom would recommend if Biden had serious health problems. Named.

“Of the four names I mentioned, I would kill Newsom last,” she said.

He said Harris is best placed to serve as Biden's vice president. Whitmer and Pritzker will have a chance to win in battleground states.

But Harris has her own problems. According to the Los Angeles Times pollster, only 40% of voters view her favorably, while 55% have an unfavorable view of her. This is about the same as Biden's polling average.

The first campaign in the 2020 presidential race was under fire before the primaries, and has been relentlessly targeted by conservatives, who are clearly worried that Biden should drop out or stall in a second term. He has tried to install her as a dangerous successor.

5) Newsom represents California liberalism.

A recent Los Angeles Times-Legger poll found that 50% of American adults (including 30% of Democrats) think the state is too liberal. The poll found significant differences in how Californians and people outside the state view issues such as climate, race and gender. Almost half of Californians say abortion should be legal under all circumstances, compared to just one-quarter of adults nationwide.

The same poll found that Newsom was viewed positively by about a third of Americans, negatively by another third, and unknown to the rest. In a rapidly polarized environment, these numbers are reasonable. But even if he becomes the Democratic nominee, he will have to endure a new onslaught of criticism.

“If you put Joe Biden against the mythical perfect Democrat, the mythical perfect Democrat will win,” said one DNC-affiliated operative. “But there is no actual Democrat that voters could agree on as an alternative candidate.”