Here’s the current story for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Former President Donald Trump is an outrageous favorite. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had his chance but missed it, the other contestants are all candidates — former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former Governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie.
Of course, there are other nominees like well-spoken tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (this time Andrew Yang), but the above names, including Ramaswamy, have so far failed to meet in Milwaukee on Aug. 23. candidates who are eligible to participate in the debate. The first election of the 2024 Republican primary.
Political narratives don’t hold much value this far from elections, but this observer finds two things particularly true. Certainly, Donald Trump is the overwhelming first choice. A poll will make that clear. And Ron DeSantis effectively blew it. (Related: Star Parker: Chris Christie Has Lawsuits Against Trump, But Will There Be One For Himself?)
The Tallahassee giant looked beautiful on paper — Yale, Harvard Law School, JAG, served in Congress, governor of the 3rd most populous state in the Commonwealth, and leaps and bounds in that regard. A state that has achieved — but his character is in a way. Mr. DeSantis imitated Mr. Trump’s populist cockiness, but lacked the element of humor that about three-quarters of Republicans liked him.
Mr. DeSantis’s ultra-overt war with Disney, the Sunshine State’s largest private employer, his refusal to interact with mainstream reporters, his reckless attacks on legitimate, awakened targets, and more have left voters sympathetic to his goals. Even for me, it felt a little jerky. DeSantis’ habit of using government to punish political opponents has also been bruised by small-government conservatives. It’s hard to get back on your feet.
None of this would matter if the Republicans didn’t want to win the White House, maintain a majority in Congress, and retake the Senate. But they really do, and that’s where the uncertainty about President Trump takes root. Three-quarters of Republicans like him because Democrats hate him, but that’s not the secret to winning the general election.
With Trump as the Republican standard bearer, the Republicans lost all three legislative branches and hundreds of state and local elections across the country. Despite President Joe Biden’s struggles in the Oval Office and being highly unpopular, this in no way boosts his confidence. The myriad state and federal indictments against Trump, despite being persistently labeled by Trump’s followers as the fruit of a poisoned government tree, do not help the general election.
Trump’s victory in the 2016 primary demonstrated the power of multiple forces in the multi-candidate race, and that’s what pragmatic Republicans are now arguing. How can we shrink this field and avoid a repeat of 2016? (Read: How to stop Donald?)
A clean exit from DeSantis would be a good start. DeSantis, who currently holds 18% of the primary vote, according to Compared to the Real Clear Politics poll average, it appears to be in virtual free fall. Just a few months ago, it had twice as much support, and it doesn’t look like it can turn around.
Freeing up DeSantis’ share of the non-Trump vote would give other candidates, such as Tim Scott, who could have broad appeal in the general election, a chance to win a sizeable portion of the Republican voter and eventually There is also the possibility of regaining momentum.
Trump supporters will tell the rest of us, “We’re dreaming,” and they’re probably right. Trump is a political locomotive that cuts through every obstacle on its course. Handcuffs may not stop him from advancing.
But as he advances, Republican hopes for the House and Senate are receding.
All of this feels very familiar.
William FB O’Reilly is a Republican strategist from New York.
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