“Our Taiwanese compatriots must stand on the right side of history and make the right choices to return cross-Strait relations to the right track of peaceful development,” said Zhang Zhijun, a senior Chinese official. Said He mentioned the island's presidential election on the 3rd and 13th of this month.

“The right choice”?

The Chinese government is not satisfied. The Democratic Progressive Party's Kiyonori Lai, a candidate hated by the party, is withdrawing from the election. Just a few weeks ago, Mr. Rai was polling within the margin of error. In some polls, he was in second place.

Chinese government calls Lai a 'separatist' Taiwan wanted to maintain its independence from the People's Republic of China. The Communist Party claims the island republics are an integral part of China.

Xi Jinping's books What the 2024 New Year's message suggests He intends to act immediately. “China will definitely be unified, and all Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” Xi said. He declared this in a sentence that appears to have been made. It will happen this year.

Taiwan's government rejects Xi's use of the term “unification,” pointing out that the People's Republic has never ruled Taiwan.

In fact, the Chinese regime has never held undisputed sovereignty over Taiwan. The Qing Dynasty, which ruled China, controlled most of Taiwan, but was considered “Manchu” and foreign by the Chinese people. Even Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist Party, which is of Chinese descent and ruled Taiwan from the end of World War II until its electoral defeat in 2000, ruled under a cloud. Although the Treaty of San Francisco resolved nearly all disputes from the global conflict, it did not confer sovereignty on Taiwan to any government.

Of course, legal minutiae don't matter in Beijing. Mr. Xi has made it clear that he will annex Taiwan.

Taiwanese people have heard Mr. Xi's dire warnings before and have largely ignored him.recently my formosa poll, Mr. Lai, who is currently vice president, maintained an overwhelming lead over Mr. Hou Youxi of the Kuomintang Party, 39.6% to 28.5%. Ko Wen-ji of the Taiwan People's Party came in third place with 18.9%.

Most polls in late December showed support for Mr. Lai, whose first name is sometimes written as “William,” soaring.

The reason for the surge appears to be cultural. Mr. Yori's election campaign was in a slump as voters focused on the governance failures of the ruling Democratic Party. But now voters are starting to pay attention to China.

This is a big advantage for so-called “green” parties like the Democratic Progressive Party, i.e. political parties in Taiwan. As the generational change progresses, Taiwan is becoming more Taiwanese. In recent years, more than 60% of the island's 23.5 million residents have consistently identified themselves as “Taiwanese only,” with many public opinion polls showing more than 80%, but few people place themselves in the “Chinese only” category. is generally less than 5%.

In 1949, Hou's Blue Nationalist Party lost the Communist civil war and defected to Taiwan. The White Terror, a brutal 40-year campaign to solidify China's control, is now remembered every February 28th. On this day in 1947, Chiang Kai-shek's regime opened fire on Taiwanese protesters in the capital, Taipei, sparking a brutal crackdown. Hou chose pro-Beijing Joe Shaukong as his running mate to strengthen his own ground, but the choice inevitably reminded voters of this history of atrocities.

Mr. Ke, who calls himself a “third party,'' also stands on the side of voters who claim that “Taiwan is China.'' “People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are of the same race and have the same history, language, religion and culture.” declared In a televised debate on December 30th. (Related: Gordon Chan: Xi Jinping is killing our children)

Mr. Rei of the Democratic Progressive Party has so far crafted a winning message. “Lai is expected to continue the moderate but firm course set by President Tsai Ing-wen,” Gerrit van der Wees, adjunct professor of Taiwan history at George Mason University, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. . “He emphasized Taiwan's sovereignty as a free and democratic nation, strengthened and deepened Taiwan's relations with like-minded countries, and strengthened deterrence through the construction of a defense and security system and Taiwan's advanced economy. “It will show that we are prepared to strengthen and engage in dialogue with China on an equal basis.” ”

Van der Wees claims that the Chinese government is not willing to negotiate with Taiwan on the basis of equality, and that Hou and Ke can deal with China better, but are still not willing to do so. He points out that he has not been able to convince voters that he intends to do so. The Kuomintang, also known as the KMT or Kuomintang, supports what is called the “1992 Consensus” with China. The Democratic Progressive Party says no such agreement exists, and so far voters do not believe that even if the 1992 agreement existed, it could be the basis for a long-term agreement with Beijing. It seems so.

Mr. Hou of the Nationalist Party, who is considered the most likely candidate by the Chinese government in this month's presidential election, Claims that Mr. Lai's election could provoke invasion by the Chinese regime. Many foreign analysts, especially those in Washington, share Hou's concerns.Beijing at the end of last month Lai called it “the true face of the destroyer of peace on both sides of the Strait.”

The risk of war is real, but it could happen no matter who voters on the 13th support. It is true that Xi Jinping may view Lai's election as a provocation that must be met with force, but during the last Kuomintang president Ma Ying-jeou's term from 2008 to 2016, Relations were not always calm.

President Xi, who cannot stop talking about war in general, may decide to launch an invasion if he determines that Presidents Hou and Ke will not accede to annexation demands. Democratically elected leaders cannot give Mr. Xi what he wants, given that the overwhelming majority of voters do not consider themselves part of China.

Of course no one in Taiwan wants to be invaded, so the risk of war depends entirely on what happens in China, not Taiwan. Throughout the history of the People's Republic, Beijing's foreign policy has been driven by domestic politics. If General Secretary Xi Jinping is in need of an external enemy at this point, anything could be seen as a provocation.

Gordon G. Chan is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and the recently published China Is Going to War. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter). @GordonGhang.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

All content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent, nonpartisan news distribution service, is available free of charge to legitimate news publishers with large audiences. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and DCNF affiliation. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.