This year's Presidents Day comes at a pivotal time, with the presidency at stake as the incumbent limps inexorably toward a rematch with his predecessor. This is the kind of contest we haven't seen since the 19th century, and judging by public opinion between President Biden and former President Trump, most Americans would have preferred it to stay that way.
However, our third presidential greatness projectIn a poll of presidential experts released this weekend, scholars found that U.S. voters are not nearly as equally averse to both candidates.
In fact, Biden debuts in the ranking at number 14, placing him in the top third of American presidents. Trump, on the other hand, remains in the same position he was six years ago, finishing last, behind historically disastrous CEOs such as James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson. There is. In that and other respects, Mr. Trump's radical departure from political, institutional, and legal norms has affected informed assessments not only of him but also of Biden and several other presidents. ing.
Overall, the findings reveal stability and change in the way scholars assess our nation's most important and controversial political positions. Great presidents have traditionally been seen as those who presided over moments of national change, guided the country through great crises, and expanded the presidential system. Military victories, economic growth, assassinations, and scandals also influence experts' evaluations of a president's performance.
The presidents at the top of our rankings and others like us reflect this. Divine leaders like Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and George Washington always top the list.
Our latest rankings also show that expert ratings are driven not only by traditional notions of greatness, but also by modern, evolving values.
One example is the continued decline in ratings for two important presidents, Andrew Jackson and Woodrow Wilson. Their reputations have suffered a steady decline in recent years, as modern politics has led scholars to evaluate the early 19th and early 20th century presidencies more harshly than ever before, particularly for their unacceptable treatment of marginalized people. ing.
More seriously, the survey finds significant partisan dynamics emerging, perhaps in response to the Trump presidency and the Trumpification of presidential politics.
President Biden's supporters are armed with strong arguments, but his high ranking in the top 15 suggests there are strong anti-Trump elements at work. So far, Mr. Biden's record does not include the military victories or institutional expansions that usually push him up the rankings, and family scandals like the one involving his son Hunter usually push the president up the rankings. It is something to lower.
Biden's most important accomplishment is rescuing the presidency from Trump, resuming a more traditional style of presidential leadership, and preparing to keep the presidency out of his predecessor's hands this fall. That might be the case.
On the other hand, President Trump is at the bottom of the rankings, ranking not only behind Buchanan and Johnson, but also behind Franklin Pierce, Warren Harding, and William Henry Harrison, who died just 31 days after taking office. He is also lagging behind the people of Japan.
Mr. Trump's influence extends far beyond his ranking and that of Mr. Biden. Modern Democratic presidents have all moved up in the rankings, including Barack Obama (7th), Bill Clinton (12th), and even Jimmy Carter (22nd).
Yes, these presidents have accomplished great things, such as expanding access to health care and working to end conflict in the Middle East, and have won two Nobel Prizes among them. But given their shortcomings and failures, their rise seems less like a reassessment of the administration and more like a bonus for not being Trump's president or a member of his party.
In fact, all modern Republican presidents have been polled, including the progressives who led the country's last decisive military victory, Ronald Reagan (16th) and George H.W. Bush (19th). Not applicable.
Academics do lean to the left, but that hasn't changed since the last survey. These results suggest that not only will a president's party affiliation be given more weight, but scholars who study the president will also consider a president's relationship to political and institutional norms as a criterion for what makes a president “great.” Loyalty is on the rise.
Americans voting for the next president are in the historically unique position of knowing how both candidates have performed in office. It remains to be seen whether they will consider each president's commitment to presidential leadership norms and come to a different assessment, similar to our experts.
Justin Vaughn is an associate professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University. Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor of political science at the University of Houston.
