Rep. Adam B. Schiff motion Strategy to spend millions To highlight Republican Senate candidates steve garvey's Garvey's conservative performance appears to have paid off, making him a strong candidate to emerge. Tuesday's primary election Schiff's general election opponent.

That's the latest discovery University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government The poll was co-sponsored by The Times. The investigation found that Mr. Schiff, a veteran Democratic congressman from Burbank, and Mr. Garvey said: Former Dodgers star first baseman In fact, he tied for first place in the primary just days before the election.

Schiff's efforts appear to have kept him ahead of his biggest rival, fellow Democrat and third-place finisher, Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine.

In the general election, Mr. Schiff will be the overwhelming favorite to defeat Mr. Garvey in Democratic-heavy California. According to the poll, Schiff starts the two-way race with a wide lead, 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. By contrast, Mr. Schiff and Mr. Porter started the general election tied, with polls showing 4 in 10 voters are undecided.

In the primary, Mr. Garvey received the support of 27% of voters, Mr. Schiff 25% and Mr. Porter 19%. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) received 8% of the vote, but 12% of voters chose another candidate and 9% were undecided.

Following the return of mail-in ballots, political consultants are predicting the outcome of Tuesday's primary. Voter turnout will be low, but Voters are significantly older, whiter and more Republican than the state's electorate overall.

“The composition of the turnout favors Mr. Schiff and Mr. Garvey and against Mr. Porter, who is popular with young voters,” said Mark, director of polling at the Institute for Governmental Research and a longtime California pollster.・Mr. DiCamillo says.

Lower-than-usual conservative turnout could also mean trouble for the public. Suggestion 1Gov. Gavin Newsom's latest effort to address homelessness and reform the state's 20-year-old mental health services law.

The ballot measure includes a $6.4 billion bond to build a facility that will provide 10,000 new treatment beds for people with severe mental illness.

According to the poll, half of voters support the idea, 34% oppose it and 16% are undecided. While that's a significant lead, supporters of ballot measures generally hope to win more than 50% support, as undecided voters tend to vote no.

some major Republican officials support bond measuresBut polls show that a majority of Republican voters oppose it, while Democrats support it.

Political data expert Paul Mitchell said, “The trend of the low-turnout California election is pretty much set in stone.''

“These dynamics are seniors over-performing and homeowners over-performing. Latinos are under-performing and Republicans are over-performing,” he said. . This combination gives Garvey a significant boost at this stage of the election, he added.

Of the 20% who had already voted by the time polls closed on Tuesday, Schiff led with 35% to Garvey's 28%. Mr. Garvey is doing better with people who plan to vote on Election Day, while Mr. Schiff is doing better with people who plan to mail their ballots in before Election Day. revealed in a public opinion poll.

For much of last year, the Senate race was determined primarily by Lee, Porter, and Schiff. Three Democrats with similar voting records — are all looking for ways to stand out in the race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Schiff led for most of last year Porter follows him.

both raised millions of dollars They will utilize their respective abilities to appeal to the Democratic Party nationwide.

porters inquisition Her remarks to Wall Street executives in Congressional hearings have made her popular among liberal voters, particularly young voters, who are angry about inequality and corporate greed.

Schiff's Reputation as one of former President Trump's leading opponents It created a source of loyalty among Democratic voters who were impressed by his work when he was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a prominent impeachment manager.

Older voters were also attracted to Mr. Schiff. gained support Most of the party's established leadership participated, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).

All of these factors contributed to generational conflict among Democrats. Mr. Garvey joined the fray in October.

Mr. Garvey's Schiff's entry An opportunity to take advantage of the state's top-two primary system, where the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans in California, so Democrats who run against a Republican opponent in a statewide election would start out with a huge advantage.

Mr. Schiff has spent more than $25 million on television ads, much of it framing the contest as a two-candidate race between him and Mr. Garvey. An outside group of Mr. Schiff's allies also spent about $10 million more on similar efforts.

Garvey's campaign had spent just $1.4 million through mid-February.

Schiff's ad does not mention Porter, but Garvey is described as “too conservative for California.” They appear to have had the intended effect of endearing the first-time candidate to Republicans, who knew little about Garvey beyond his past as a baseball star. Polls show that about two-thirds of likely Republican voters now support him.

Porter is also treated badly. $10 million in attack ads from outside groups It is funded by Silicon Valley billionaires and crypto investors.

That appears to have hurt her standing among voters. The latest poll found that 27% of likely voters had a negative view of her, an 11 percentage point increase from her previous poll. The last survey was in early January. However, her image remains overall positive, with 45% of likely voters viewing her favorably and 28% of likely voters having no opinion of her. do not have.

As Mr. Garvey solidified the Republican vote with Mr. Schiff's help, the congressman advanced among Democrats. Polls showed him leading Porter among Democratic voters, 40% to 30%.

Mr. Garvey, Mr. Schiff, and Mr. Porter are basically tied among independent voters.

Mr. Schiff has an advantage in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area, the state's two largest population centers. In the Bay Area, he has the support of 28% of voters, with Porter in second place with 24%. In his home county of Los Angeles, Mr. Schiff was in second place with 28%, followed by Mr. Garvey with 22%.

The last Times poll, conducted in January, had Mr. Porter leading by double digits in his home state of Orange County. Garvey currently has 34% support among her likely voters, leapfrogging her in the populous county. Porter has 30%.

Mr. Garvey also Inland Empire, Central Valley and San Diego County.

As Garvey's popularity increased, the proportion of voters who viewed him favorably and unfavorably rose. Voters are now almost evenly divided, with 36% having a favorable view of him, 37% having an unfavorable view, and 27% having no opinion of him at all.

Nearly half of likely voters, 47%, had a favorable view of Schiff, while 37% had an unfavorable view and 16% had no opinion.

When asked what issue was most important to their vote, 55% of likely voters said it was very important to protect abortion rights, and 51% said the same about being a strong opponent of Trump. answered. These two were the top motivators cited by supporters of Schiff and Porter.

The second most important issue, cited by 46% of likely voters as very important, was support for stricter immigration laws. Among Garvey supporters, 94% said it was very important.

The most obvious drawback is age, with Mr Porter doing much better than his rivals among voters under 50. She leads Mr. Schiff and Mr. Garvey by double digit percentages among voters under 40. Mr. Schiff and Mr. Garvey have essentially the same number of likely voters over 65 (35% vs. 34%).

of Berkeley IGS Poll It was held online from February 22nd to 27th in English and Spanish.

The poll surveyed 3,304 registered California voters who have either already voted or are considered likely to participate in Tuesday's primary election. Results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so margin of error estimates may be inaccurate. However, the margin of error for likely voters in this survey is estimated at 2 percentage points in either direction.