A new poll shows criminal law attorney Nathan Hochman holding a sizable lead over Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón in the race for the incumbent's seat.

A new poll from the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The New York Times, found that if the Nov. 5 election were held today, 45% of Los Angeles County voters would vote for Hochman and just 20% would vote for Gascón.

As the election approaches, 35% of voters say they are still undecided, meaning candidates have less than 80 days to educate these undecided voters on their policies and record in an attempt to sway their views.

But according to Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, which was conducted between July 31 and August 11, there is currently “broad support for Hochman across nearly every subgroup.”

Voters' perception of Gascón was generally negative, with 21% having a favorable view, 45% having an unfavorable view, and 34% having no opinion. In contrast, 35% had a favorable view of Hochman, only 7% had an unfavorable view, and 57% had no opinion.

While the poll shows Gascón facing an uphill battle for reelection, Hochman is also largely unknown: Of 1,136 Los Angeles County voters surveyed, 57% said they had no opinion of Hochman, compared with 34% who said the same about Gascón.

Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and chairman of the Los Angeles Ethics Commission, has years of relevant experience. Democrats have sought to portray him as a Republican, and although he is an independent in this year's election, he was the Republican candidate for state attorney general in 2022.

While many seem to blame Governor Gascón for the impression that crime is out of control, statistics contradict that view.

In the latest poll, 60% said they believe the county has become less safe over the past three years, while only 5% said it has improved. Of those who said it has improved, 28% said Gascón's policies contributed “largely” to it, and of those who said it has worsened, 53% said Gascón's policies contributed “largely” to it.

DiCamillo said this doesn't bode well for Gascón.

“People who have an opinion of Nathan Hochman have a positive image of him, so if you're unknown, that's a good place to start,” DiCamillo said, “Gascón, on the other hand, has a negative image. In my experience, one of the hardest things about polling is overcoming the accumulated negative image. It takes something big to do that.”

This election will help determine the future of criminal justice and law enforcement in Los Angeles County.

For University of Southern California law professor Jody Armour, it's “a referendum on whose vision for criminal justice and public safety resonates with the public.”

The new poll, which had a margin of error of three points, offers a glimpse into how voters are thinking about the race as Election Day approaches, when voters head to the polls four years after the Black Lives Matter movement and police reform movements gave rise to left-leaning district attorneys in communities across the country, including Gascón.

“This election will be a referendum on whether Los Angeles is really willing to embrace criminal justice reform and the spirit of the progressive prosecutor movement to change the idea that safety doesn't mean longer sentences, because the data shows that longer sentences don't necessarily make people safer,” Armour said.

That message didn't seem to get through to many of the voters surveyed in the poll: By some measures, crime in Los Angeles has been declining under Gascón's term and over the past few decades.

For example, in the city of Los Angeles, violent crime was down about 7% year-over-year as of October 2023, and there were 1,650 fewer violent incidents reported to police through September 30, 2023 compared to the same date in 2022, according to LAPD data. Petty theft increased 14% over the same period, but other property crimes, including murder, robbery and rape, declined in the city.

But as Gascón's opponents are quick to point out, crime is also up in other metrics: For example, there were 212 homicides last year, compared to 195 in 2022, an 8% increase, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department.

In the latest Berkeley IGS poll, only one in ten voters said Gascón would do a better job of dealing with organized retail theft and robbery cases — a key issue in Los Angeles, where brazen crime has soared in recent years — while for Hochman, that figure was 38 percent, roughly the same as the share who said he would do a better job prosecuting violent crimes than Gascón.

Hochman, who spoke to The Times about the investigation on Thursday, wasn't surprised by this.

“This poll is consistent with everything we've seen since the March 5 primary,” Hochman said. “Every poll shows that Los Angeles voters are tired of crime and feel less safe than when George Gascón took office in 2020. And they want a District Attorney who will enforce the law fairly and make them feel safe again.”

Gascón's campaign declined to provide an interview about the poll, instead issuing a short emailed statement.

“Hochman is hoping voters will forget that he remained a Republican until 2022 — six years of Donald Trump's hatred and bigotry,” wrote Jamala Hayner, a campaign strategist for Gascón's campaign. “In Los Angeles, that's a risky bet.”

Michael Trujillo, a veteran election consultant and senior adviser to the anti-Gascon Independent Expenditure Committee, said he thinks the Berkeley IGS poll shows Hochman is resonating with voters.

“I think Nathan Hochman needs to make the case to Democrats in the county for why he's the best choice,” Trujillo said, “and as of today, I think he has a very good chance of doing that, given how weak District Attorney Gascón is across the county.”

Gascón's tenure as district attorney has been riddled with trouble: 20 prosecutors have accused him of workplace retaliation and he has been named as a defendant in more than a dozen civil lawsuits, most of them filed by his own employees.

Also earlier this year, California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced 11 felony charges against Gascón's top assistant deputy, Diana Teran, who oversaw ethics and integrity in the district attorney's office, for illegally putting the names of several sheriff's deputies in a database of officers accused of misconduct. State prosecutors dropped three of the charges against Teran this month, and Teran has denied any wrongdoing.

USC's Armour said Gascón needs to change the narrative if he wants to reverse the trends reflected in the latest polling numbers.

“The job description of the district attorney is not only to come up with good criminal justice policies that his or her office will implement, but also to communicate very clearly to the public the current state of crime and punishment in Los Angeles County,” Armour said. “The district attorney must see their role as a good administrator and a good communicator who communicates the facts clearly.”