CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that former President Donald Trump will likely win the November election if he can slightly beat current polling projections.
Vice President Kamala Harris leads President Trump by just 0.2 percentage points in the top seven battleground states. According to Enten told CNN News Central that Harris's slight lead means that Trump could win the November election if his final vote total is just one point higher than current polling projections suggest. (RELATED: Eric Trump says Democrats are “feeding” him with black, Hispanic and young votes)
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CNN data expert says Trump would win if he “bettered current polls by even a single point” pic.twitter.com/HwOwnMNeMU
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“In almost every case, there is at least a period of time where one of the candidates has a lead of at least five points, and there is at least a three-week period where one candidate has a lead of at least five points. This has happened in every election from 1964 to 2020,” Enten told host John Berman. “How many days in a race have there been where one candidate has a lead of at least five points nationally? Zero, zero days, zero days. The fact is, this race has been as consistently close as we've ever seen it.”
“Look at the Democrats versus Donald Trump, and the seven states that are close. Look at the final margin in 2020 and the average of those seven states. Biden was up by 0.9 points. You think it couldn't get any closer? In fact, it could get much closer. Right now, Kamala Harris is ahead by just 0.6 points, just 0.5 points, 0.6 points, on average,” the data reporter added. “Wow, it's this close right now in seven battleground states. Berman, if you look at the seven key battleground states that will decide this election, it's within the margin of error.”
Democratic strategist James Carville warned the party in August not to get overconfident about Harris' chances of winning because Trump has historically outperformed her on average in approval ratings. NBC News national political reporter Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that while Harris has a slight approval rating lead over Trump, it may not be enough to secure the electoral votes because Harris' approval ratings exceeded expectations in both 2016 and 2020.
“So let's say the polls are perfectly in line with the results. Kamala Harris would get 292 electoral votes and Donald Trump would win this election with 246. But let's say we move the current polls so that the results are one percentage point different. And Donald Trump benefits from that,” Enten said. “Look at this. If Trump beat the current polls by even one point, look at this with Kamala Harris winning.”
“Donald Trump will get 287 electoral votes, because at the end of the day, he's going to flip Pennsylvania, he's going to flip Nevada here. And that, my friends, is what we're talking about,” he continued. “We're talking about the closest election race in a generation, where one point could make all the difference in the world. John, this is a really exciting race right now, where a small move could make all the difference in the world.”
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